Mumbai: With almost 95 per cent of the scrapped notes finding their way to banks, the government may at best gain around Rs 50,000 crore only by way of additional surplus transfer from the Reserve Bank, which is far less than what was estimated earlier, says a brokerage report.
"How much can budget 2017 raise from the demonetisation drive? Rs 1,500 billion (Rs 1.5 lakh crore), we estimate, down from Rs 2,000 billion (Rs 2 lakh crore) earlier," Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said in a note on Wednesday.
It also nearly halved its estimate of RBI dividend from black cash money not returned to banks to Rs 50,000 crore from Rs 95,000 crore, as the banks had collected over Rs 14 lakh crore out of the Rs 15.55 lakh crore in demonetised notes deposits by December 19, it said.
The dividend will be possible after the recent Ordinance that allows the RBI to cancel the liability in respect of demonetised Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes not returned to banks.
"The Ordinance presumably paves the way for a 'special dividend' to the fiscal," it said, adding additionally, the income disclosure scheme will net another Rs 1 lakh crore to the government.
The RBI's "special dividend" may be utilised for social sector schemes, it said.
Assuming Finance Minister Arun Jaitley sticks to the 3.5 per cent fiscal deficit target, he will "be just about able to maintain public capex" at budgeted levels after utilising the benefits of IDS for bank recapitalisation and seventh pay commission payout, it said.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
"How much can budget 2017 raise from the demonetisation drive? Rs 1,500 billion (Rs 1.5 lakh crore), we estimate, down from Rs 2,000 billion (Rs 2 lakh crore) earlier," Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said in a note on Wednesday.
It also nearly halved its estimate of RBI dividend from black cash money not returned to banks to Rs 50,000 crore from Rs 95,000 crore, as the banks had collected over Rs 14 lakh crore out of the Rs 15.55 lakh crore in demonetised notes deposits by December 19, it said.
The dividend will be possible after the recent Ordinance that allows the RBI to cancel the liability in respect of demonetised Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes not returned to banks.
"The Ordinance presumably paves the way for a 'special dividend' to the fiscal," it said, adding additionally, the income disclosure scheme will net another Rs 1 lakh crore to the government.
The RBI's "special dividend" may be utilised for social sector schemes, it said.
Assuming Finance Minister Arun Jaitley sticks to the 3.5 per cent fiscal deficit target, he will "be just about able to maintain public capex" at budgeted levels after utilising the benefits of IDS for bank recapitalisation and seventh pay commission payout, it said.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
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