India is likely to increase thermal coal imports from October 2026 as robust power demand and pressure on domestic coal production weigh on utility inventories, according to commodity data and analytics firm Kpler.
Coal-fired power generation rose to 114 TWh in August, nearly 14% higher than a year earlier, while coal consumption by the power sector increased to around 77 million tonnes (Mt). At the same time, power plant coal inventories are projected to decline to around 27 Mt, roughly half the level recorded a year ago.
“With hydro generation weak and solar output easing into winter, seaborne coal will become increasingly important for maintaining supply security,” Kpler said.
While domestic coal production is expected to recover from October, Kpler said the improvement may not be sufficient to rebuild power-sector inventories at a fast pace. The situation could increase India's reliance on seaborne thermal coal in the coming months, particularly as seasonal factors reduce the contribution from hydropower and solar generation.
India's coal output had already shown signs of strength in July. According to core sector data, coal production increased 8.7% year-on-year during the month. However, the combination of rising electricity demand and elevated coal-fired generation is putting pressure on stockpiles at power plants.
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The potential rise in imports highlights the growing importance of imported coal in balancing India's power requirements, even as domestic production continues to expand. With power generation from coal already running significantly above last year's levels, a sustained drawdown in inventories could prompt utilities to turn to overseas supplies to ensure adequate fuel availability.
Meanwhile, Coal India reported a 5.5% year-on-year increase in total supplies in August to 60.60 Mt. For the April-August period, total coal supplies rose 6.7% year-on-year to 322.90 Mt.
Coal India said it has sufficient inventory to support power generation, offering some cushion against near-term supply concerns. The rise in coal supplies comes as India continues to see strong electricity demand. Higher thermal generation has become particularly important amid weaker hydro output, while solar generation is expected to moderate as the country moves towards winter.
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