Rising exports to Asian markets, led by the UAE, China, Hong Kong and Vietnam will help push the country's outbound trade next fiscal year, said an HSBC Trade report. It, however, did not put a number to its growth projection or the target.
The report said merchandise exports (both imports as well as exports) will grow at an impressive average annual pace of 17 per cent during 2013-15 and by 15 per cent annually during 2016-20.
Apart from the largest partnet UAE, China, Hong Kong and Vietnam in particular are expected to considerably increase their share in the country's exports, said the HSBC Trade report.
After contracting for eight successive months, exports rose by 4.25 per cent in Feburary, reflecting some recovery in the global markets, to $26.26 billion, said the Commerce Ministry on Tuesday.
In January, exports grew a poor 0.82 per cent but outward shipments entered the positive zone after a long gap of eight months.
However, during the April-February period, exports contracted by 4 per cent to $265.95 billion. Imports during the 11-month period grew by a mere 0.25 per cent to $ 448 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $182.1 billion.
Last year, exports crossed $304 billion, while imports crossed $480 billion in the year.
"Intra-Asian trade is forecast to be a major driver not of the country's exports but for the entire regional trade growth as the Asian economy recovers faster than that of the Western economies. Therefore we see goods exports accelerate again in next fiscal year," said HSBC India managing director and commercial banking head Sandeep Uppal.
He further said exports are expected to accelerate in the coming years as the country moves up the value chain into higher sectors such as transport equipment, chemicals and industrial machinery.
However, lower value-added sectors like wood and textiles, which employ a large part of unskilled workforce, will continue to generate a significant portion of export revenue, he added.
"UAE will continue to be the country's largest single export market till 2030. The UAE already accounts for around 15 per cent of the country's total exports as of financial year 2012," said Mr Uppal.
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