Wages in Japan: Decoding Key Indicators as Pay Inches Higher

(Bloomberg) -- Wages are getting close scrutiny around the globe as a make-or-break indicator for the health of the global economy. Few places see a greater interest in the subject than Japan, where efforts to revive growth hinge on increasing how much people earn and spend.

 After years of wage stagnation, some economists see nascent signs of change in Japan that may bring a breakout that's big enough to produce winners and losers in the corporate world and fuel faster inflation for the whole economy. Yet just as many remain skeptical.

Here is a series of charts showing some of the most important measures of wages and income in Japan and how they fit into the picture for consumer spending, the prices companies charge for their goods and services and the course of inflation.

The labor ministry's monthly data provide the earliest and most frequent window into changes in wages. Two numbers here are especially important: the percentage change in average scheduled monthly wages per full-time worker, and the percentage change in average hourly pay per part-time worker.

The scheduled pay per full-time worker is a key determinant of spending by families and households with at least one member in steady and secure employment. It's also a significant fixed cost for companies and as it rises so too does pressure on businesses to charge their customers more.

This gauge has been edging higher since mid 2014 but hasn't made a significant mark on consumption or inflation yet. While a shortage of workers has encouraged some employers to hire more full-timers over the past two years, they now comprise 69 percent of the workforce, compared with 84 percent about two decades ago.

For the most part, these workers are more interested in holding onto their jobs and the benefits that go with them than pushing for a pay rise or job hopping. The annual "shunto" wage negotiations by the nation's labor unions are testament to this tendency.

Read more: Bearish forces on pay in Japan.

The second key data point, hourly pay per part-time worker, has been rising more convincingly, and for longer. This is set to continue as the shrinking population aggravates a labor shortage that's already pushed the unemployment rate to a two-decade low.

With around 31 percent of the labor force now part-timers, compared with 16 percent about two decades ago, hourly pay is increasingly important. But there are caveats, including that the number of hours actually worked by part-timers has slipped slightly over the past four years. Anecdotal reports suggest this is the case among many working mothers seeking to keep their earnings below a threshold of around 1 million yen ($9,000) for tax benefits.

Pay for some part-timers living week-to-week goes directly into consumption but others with a small cushion may be encouraged to squirrel it away in savings given the insecurity of their employment.

Click here for a bullish view on Japanese wages.

The ministry wraps these two measure together, along with figures for overtime, family allowances and bonuses into its average monthly total cash earnings. It captures everything from the hourly pay of a part-time street sweeper to mid-level corporate managers and factory foreman, but not company executives.

This index has been improving over the past few years, in fits and starts. It's also prone to large swings toward the middle and end of each year, when Japanese companies pay summer and winter bonuses.

When reading the data, keep in mind that many businesses favor putting a portion of their rising profits into bonuses, which they're free to wind back, rather than locking themselves in with higher wages that increases their fixed costs.

These labor ministry statistics are based on surveys of about 33,000 employers. The total cash earnings figures have deviated by as much as 1.8 percentage point from annual data released by the National Tax Agency each September that draws on individual tax data.

When it comes to quarterly indicators, and the interplay of wages with consumer spending, Bloomberg uses the national accounts from the Cabinet Office to calculate unit labor costs, which indicate whether companies are paying their workers more or less to produce goods and services.

Unit labor costs have registered gains since the fourth quarter of 2015, with the exception of a pull-back in the three months ended March this year.

The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey helps to round out the picture, showing how wage pressures differ for companies based both on the size of an enterprise and their industry.

In general, the smaller the company, the bigger the problem they are having with the labor shortage.

Manufacturers are feeling pressure, but it's most acute in the hospitality sector, where squeezing productivity gains out of workers is proving difficult.

The transport industry is also feeling the pinch, with the nation's biggest express-delivery company, Yamato Holdings Co., increasing both wages and prices.

Winners and Losers: How companies fare as wages rise.

The next update from the labor ministry comes on June 6 when it releases April data. Two days later a revised reading of the national accounts may yield small changes to the first quarter result for unit labor costs. The BOJ's second-quarter Tankan survey is due July 3.

To contact the author of this story: Yoshiaki Nohara in Tokyo at ynohara1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Brett Miller at bmiller30@bloomberg.net, James Mayger