UBS sets Nifty 2014 target at 6,900 and says it expects the index to trade between 5,500 and 6,900 for the year based on its valuations and FY15 earnings growth estimates of 10-15 percent for the NSE index.
The investment bank adds tapering is not a big fundamental worry for India, but a depreciating rupee may yet be a likely trend. More than 30 percent of Nifty earnings benefit from the depreciating rupee and this could provide some stability for overall market earnings.
UBS adds that elections are the key theme for first half of 2014 and the recent rally implies that a Narendra Modi-led BJP government is no longer viewed as a low-probability scenario. The BJP emerged as the biggest winner in four key state elections, exit polls forecast on Wednesday, a possible blow to the ruling Congress party ahead of a general election due next year.
The bank is "overweight" on Indian IT, telecommunications, media, oil and gas, private banks and power shares, while being "underweight" on two-wheelers, consumer discretionary, infrastructure and capital goods, government banks.
UBS remains "neutral" on Indian four-wheelers, rural-focused consumer staples, metals, mining and pharmaceutical stocks.
Copyright @ Thomson Reuters 2013
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