(Bloomberg) -- Net migration to the U.K. dropped by a record 106,000 in the year following the Brexit referendum as European Union nationals arrived in fewer numbers, a trend welcomed by some lawmakers and deplored by businesses.
Total arrivals outnumbered departures by 230,000 in the 12 months through June, the lowest figure since the end of 2013, the Office for National Statistics in London said. Net migration stood at a record 336,000 in the year before the referendum.
EU nationals shunning Britain accounted for much of the change, with net migration from the bloc dropping by 43 percent to 107,000. The 82,000 decline was larger than in any quarter since at least 2010. EU immigration fell by 54,000 to 230,000 and emigration rose by 28,000 to 123,000, the highest since 2008.
The shifts were particularly marked among citizens of the central and eastern European nations that joined the bloc since 2004, including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.
“What explains this fall? It is partly because our economy has slowed
significantly and the pound has fallen -- in large part due to Brexit," said Jonathan Portes, senior fellow at the U.K. in a Changing Europe research group. “Whatever your views on the impact of immigration, it cannot be good news that the U.K. is a less attractive place to live and work, and that we will be poorer as a result.”
Divided Opinion
The decline was welcomed by campaigners pressing for hard line on immigration and brings Prime Minister Theresa May a step closer to her target of cutting annual net migration to the “tens of thousands.” But sectors such as hospitality, construction and food manufacturing rely heavily on EU labor and are struggling to find the workers they need.
“Immigration is a vote of confidence in a country's future prospects. Disappointingly, today's ONS figures show that the U.K. is facing a lose-lose situation of fewer EU migrants coming here as well as EU citizens leaving” since the Brexit vote,” said Seamus Nevin, head of policy research at the Institute of Directors. “If small firms cannot find the people to fill the jobs they are creating, then local economies will suffer.”
The ONS said the number of people coming to Britain for a definite job remained stable but there was a 43 percent decrease in those immigrating to look for work, with the decline most pronounced among EU citizens. There were also 14 percent fewer arrivals for formal study, a worrying development for colleges that rely on international students to boost their income.
“These changes suggest that Brexit is likely to be a factor in people's decision to move to or from the U.K. -- but decisions to migrate are complex and other factors are also going to be influencing the figures,” said Nicola White, head of migration statistics at the ONS.
New Era
The rights of EU citizens in the U.K., and those of Britons living in other EU countries, are key issues in the Brexit negotiations with the EU. A pickup in the economies of continental Europe and a weaker pound may also have made the U.K. less attractive for migrant workers. Sterling has dropped against all its major currencies since the Brexit vote, weakening about 10 percent against the dollar.
“Brexit was always going to radically reshape Britain's labor market, but today's migration figures suggest that change is already playing out,” said Stephen Clarke, an economic analyst at the Resolution Foundation think tank. “Businesses across Britain need to prepare now for a new era of lower migration. This could include finding new ways to recruit U.K.-born workers -– no mean feat in an already tight labor market –- reskilling existing staff, or investing in more productivity enhancing technology.”
James Dobson, senior researcher at the liberal conservative think tank Bright Blue, called on the government to abandon its net migration target.
"The net migration target has been missed in every since quarter since its introduction in 2010," he said. "It is arbitrary and indiscriminate, and the consistent failure to meet it has contributed to a belief that immigration is out of control, and detrimental to this country."
To contact the reporters on this story: Andrew Atkinson in London at a.atkinson@bloomberg.net, Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net, Andrew Atkinson
©2017 Bloomberg L.P.
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