(Bloomberg) -- Preceded by a group of carnival drummers, Federico Gutierrez and his entourage progressed slowly into a working-class neighborhood of Bogota, the pulse of the drums drowning out insults yelled by groups of onlookers.
Gutierrez is running for Colombia's presidency, and the capital's grittier districts are the heartland of his main rival, Gustavo Petro. But the candidate known as “Fico” is betting that he can win over voters in areas like these by focusing on an issue that transcends class: street crime.
“People are tired of being robbed, and of killings for a cell phone, a bicycle or a watch,” Gutierrez told the crowd in the north Bogota neighborhood of Suba this week. “The most important thing is to guarantee security.”
Colombia's May 29 election is being closely watched after neighbor Peru and then Chile voted in unconventional leftist presidents within the past 12 months, showing how inequalities aggravated by the pandemic are shaking up Latin American politics.
Colombia, as home to the region's third-biggest population and one of its fastest-growing economies, is the next gauge of voter appetite for disruption. The country's status as Washington's strongest ally in the region may also hinge on the outcome.
Petro, 62, a former mayor of Bogota, is the frontrunner on a platform that centers on a radical shift in Colombia's economic model away from oil and coal. He also wants the rich to pay more tax, and plans to restore relations with the socialist government of Venezuela.
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Yet Gutierrez, a 47-year-old civil engineer by training, is making inroads, including with his pledge to take a tough line on criminals of all kinds, from cocaine-trafficking mafias to football hooligans. Polls show the election has narrowed to a two-horse race.
At stake is Colombia's free market economic model, which would come “under stress” if Petro wins, said Jorge Restrepo, director of CERAC, a Bogota-based political research group.
Gutierrez wants to tweak the model, rather than overhaul it. Running for the “Team Colombia” coalition of conservative and Christian parties, his challenge is to avoid being tarnished as the continuity candidate at a time when the 50-million strong population is angry and demanding change.
While his support is growing, it's unclear whether he can overcome the “huge” level of discontent directed at Colombia's political class in general and the national government in particular, according to Restrepo. “He's not the candidate to be a response to that,” he said.
Last year, the nation exploded in weeks of unrest over outgoing President Ivan Duque's attempt to raise taxes. His government, which is ideologically akin to Gutierrez, remains deeply unpopular. Even though growth is forecast to outpace all other major economies in the region this year, soaring food prices have aggravated widespread hunger.
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Gutierrez's solution is to assert that while Colombia needs a lot of change -- he advocates higher state payments to older people living in poverty, more paved roads in the countryside, more spending on nursery education -- it can't afford the “leap in the dark” that Petro represents.
A former mayor of Medellin, Colombia's second city and a conservative heartland, Gutierrez mixes his tough-on-crime message with more progressive proposals for generous welfare checks and calls on parents not to beat their children.
With the economy the No. 1 issue for voters, Gutierrez also tackled inflation on Tuesday, saying that surging food prices have made staples unaffordable for many and that companies should help by boosting wages now that the economy is recovering.
Still, crime and security remains his signature focus: It's the first topic mentioned in his manifesto. Certainly, Colombia is much less violent than it was during the drug wars of the 1980s and the civil conflict of the 1990s. But there is still near-record cocaine production in the countryside, which remains overrun by illegal private armies, while city-dwellers suffer frequent muggings.
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Bogota accounts for about a sixth of Colombia's population and a quarter of its economic output, making it a key electoral battleground. It's also a city where about one-in-every-six residents is a victim of crime each year, according to the national statistics agency. Almost 80% of residents see the city as “insecure” or “very insecure,” an Invamer poll last month found.
“Around here they rob a lot,” said Alva Marina Velandia, 58, an undecided voter who sells fried snacks and coffee in the street in Suba. “They grab a phone, then run off.”
While it might appear promising electoral territory for Gutierrez, the capital has tended to back leftist candidates in recent years, and many voters welcome Petro's calls for wealth redistribution and a green economy.
A poll last week showed that Gutierrez had narrowed the gap in recent weeks, but that Petro would still win by 52% to 45% in a June runoff vote.
Petro is strongest in Bogota and the Caribbean coast, among poorer voters and the young. Gutierrez is popular in Medellin and the western coffee-growing region, as well as with older Colombians who recall the extreme violence of the 1980s and 1990s, and welcome his calls for a hard line on law and order.
Gutierrez's security focus helps to highlight Petro's membership from those times of the guerrilla force known as M-19. Petro demobilized more than three decades ago and embraced democratic politics, but it remains a potential drag on his appeal, especially among the older electorate.
Petro can't be allowed to “take the country, because he took up arms against the Colombian people,” said Marta Lucia Varon, 65, a Gutierrez supporter who followed the candidate as he walked among the small stores and street vendors in Suba. “We can't take risks.”
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