(Bloomberg) --
For many emerging markets, 2020 is looking slightly better than 2019: In a goldilocks scenario, Fed rate cuts will stabilize U.S. growth -- gifting emerging markets with steady capital flows and strong external demand. But that's not guaranteed: If an escalating trade war turns a global slowdown into a global downturn, a combination of weaker exports and capital outflows could push vulnerable emerging markets back to the brink. In that risk-off scenario, Bloomberg Economics' scorecard suggests Argentina and Turkey are most vulnerable to disruption, with South Africa and Colombia not far behind.
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