India is set to import the most crude from Saudi Arabia in more than six years this month, as the South Asian nation faces sustained US pressure to reduce purchases of Russian barrels.
Shipments from Saudi Arabia are set to rise to 1 million to 1.1 million barrels a day, the highest since November 2019, said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler. That's broadly in line with Russia, according to Kpler, which would be a significant narrowing of a gap between the two suppliers that widened after India ramped up Russian oil buying following the Ukraine invasion.
US pressure on India came to a head earlier this month after President Donald Trump said the nation agreed to stop taking Russian oil as part of a trade deal, a claim that New Delhi hasn't directly addressed publicly. Russia will still be the country's biggest supplier this month if flows reach the top of Kpler's range at 1.2 million barrels a day, but shipments are set to drop even further.
India emerged as a major buyer of Russian crude following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, after the OPEC+ producer was forced to heavily discount its barrels as most other buyers shied away from energy associated with Moscow. At its peak, the South Asian nation imported 2 million barrels a day of Russian crude.
Imports from Russia are expected to shrink further next month, according to Kpler, which forecasts flows at a range of 800,000 to 1 million barrels a day. A maintenance shutdown over April and May at a refinery operated by Nayara Energy Ltd. — which is completely dependent on Russian crude after sanctions by the European Union — is expected to trim volumes even more.
For Russia, losing share in India erodes a key outlet for its barrels displaced from Europe after the Ukraine war. For Saudi Arabia, regaining the top spot would restore strategic influence in one of the fastest-growing oil markets.
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