Goldman Sachs Sees Fed Hiking More Times in 2023 Amid Inflation

(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has lifted its U.S. inflation forecast and now sees the Federal Reserve lifting rates more than expected in 2023.

The U.S. bank now forecasts the Fed's preferred inflation measure to reach 3.7% by the end of 2022 compared with its previous forecast of 3.1%, economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a report to clients. They then see price growth slowing to 2.4% by the end of 2023 compared with an earlier view of 2.2%.

“A very high inflation path in 2022 should make an easy case for steady rate hikes at all seven remaining FOMC meetings,” the economists wrote. “In light of our higher inflation forecast for 2023, we now expect four additional quarterly hikes next year (versus. three previously), resulting in a slightly higher terminal funds rate of 2.75-3%.”

Data on Friday showed the personal consumption expenditures price index, the gauge most closely watched by the Fed, increasing 0.6% from a month earlier and 6.1% from January 2021, the most since 1982. Spending, unadjusted for inflation, rose 2.1% from December, while incomes were little changed.

Officials will get another important piece of evidence on the state of the economy on March 4 with the February jobs report. U.S. employers probably added another 400,000 jobs, while average hourly earnings growth accelerated to 5.8% from a year earlier, based on median projections in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The Goldman analysts say it's an open question how much inflation will stabilize by year-end.

“While the inflation surge in 2021 was dominated by pandemic-driven supply-demand imbalances for durable goods, inflationary pressures have broadened and intensified in recent months,” they wrote.