The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has dropped to just 0.004%, indicating that the asteroid will safely pass the Earth in 2032, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) said on Tuesday.
Initially projected to have a 3.1% chance of striking Earth in December 2032, the odds have significantly reduced following the latest calculations by the space agency. NASA said that the latest observations show the asteroid's path is now moving farther from Earth, making a safe pass on December 22, 2032, more likely.
Timeline Of Calculations By NASA:
The asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected on Jan. 27 by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile.
On Feb. 7, the impact probability stood at 2.3%, according to NASA.
On Feb. 18, NASA released the highest recorded impact probability for an object of this size. NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies updated the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 to 3.1%.
By Feb. 19, the impact probability came down to 1.5%.
Overnight observations on Feb. 19 – 20 of asteroid 2024 YR4 further reduced its chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, to 0.28%.
The latest observations, released on Feb. 25, show that probability at 0.004%.
The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has dropped to 0.004%. It's expected to safely pass Earth in 2032.
February 24, 2025
Read the full update: https://t.co/wirnWv6FYE pic.twitter.com/AKXma5eVoTAsteroid 2024 YR4: Moon Impact Probability Rises
While the latest calculations have provided some relief for Earth, NASA noted that the chance of an impact with the Moon has jumped to over 1%. "There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032. That probability is currently 1.7%," it added.
Asteroid 2024 YR4's probability of hitting the moon was reported to be 0.8% earlier, which was later increased to 1%.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently estimated to be about 130 – 300 feet across (40 – 90 meters). However, more clarity about its size will come when NASA's James Webb Space Telescope can observe it in March 2025.
NASA said that details on asteroid 2024 YR4 will continue to emerge until April 2025, when it becomes too distant for Earth-based telescopes to track. It will be visible again in 2028.
At present, NASA's 'asteroid risk' list includes 33 space objects that could potentially impact Earth over the next 100 years.
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