Oil Sands Emissions Seen Starting to Fall in Next Five Years

(Bloomberg) -- Total greenhouse-gas emissions from Canada's oil sands could begin to fall in the next five years as pollution per barrel has already been declining since 2009, IHS Markit said.

Greenhouse gas intensity from the region has fallen by a yearly average of 1.5 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per barrel since 2009, the research firm said. The largest oil sands companies, facing opposition from some investors due to the industries larger-than-average effect on climate change, have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions from their operations by 2050, mostly by using carbon capture and storage technology.  

Even during the pandemic, when a reduction in output was expected to increase emissions per barrel because of less efficiency, the intensity also declined, Kevin Birn, chief Canadian oil market analyst for IHS Markit, said in the report. 

“Such a disruption would be expected to put upward pressure on GHG intensity by driving down facility utilization—using similar levels of energy but with fewer units produced,” Birn said. Should the pace of reductions in emissions intensity continue and production growth keep slowing, an absolute reduction in emissions within the next half decade could happen.

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