2026 T20 World Cup Qualifier: How Can UAE, Japan, Qatar, Samoa Qualify To Claim The Final Spot

T20 World Cup Qualification Scenarios: The qualification for the T20 World Cup is nearing its crucial stage, as two out of the remaining three places were confirmed. Nepal and Oman secured their qualification via the Asia/East Asia-Pacific Qualifiers on Wednesday.

With just four matches remaining in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup East Asia Pacific Qualifier 2025, the final place in the T20 World Cup 2026 is up for grabs.

Here's all you need to know about the teams and their qualification chances as the world gears up for the upcoming T20 World Cup in 2026.

The four teams that can join Nepal and Oman for next year's T20 World Cup are:

• United Arab Emirates (UAE)

• Japan

• Qatar

• Samoa

Japan and Samoa still have two matches left to decide their fate, whereas the fate of the UAE and Qatar will be decided when they play their final fixture in the next few days.

The four remaining fixtures of the tournament are as follows:

• Thursday, October 16, 4:00 PM: United Arab Emirates v Japan

• Thursday, October 16, 8:00 PM: Qatar v Samoa

• Friday, October 17, 11:30 AM: Japan v Oman

• Friday, October 17, 4:00 PM: Samoa v Nepal

Of all four teams in contention, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has a much brighter chance of qualifying for the 2026 T20 World Cup due to their current position in the points table and their impressive net run rate.

The UAE are currently third in the points table with a net run rate (NRR) of 1.213.

The UAE play Japan in a crucial decider at the Al Amerat Cricket Ground on Thursday.

• A win for the Gulf nation will take them to second place in the points table and guarantee them a spot in the 2026 T20 World Cup.

• The UAE can still qualify even if they lose to Japan, provided the results of other fixtures go in their favour.

  • If the UAE loses to Japan, they will remain on four points and likely remain in third place due to their superior net run rate, assuming the loss isn't by a very significant margin.

  • To guarantee their berth, the UAE would need Qatar to lose to Samoa in their Thursday evening fixture and for Oman to beat Japan in their fixture on Friday.

  • A win for Qatar against Samoa might still not eliminate the Muhammad Waseem-led side (UAE), provided the margin of victory is not large enough to overcome the UAE's current NRR advantage over the Mirza Mohammed Baig-led side (Qatar).

Japan are fourth in the points table and have a net run rate of 0.012.

Japan will meet the UAE in a crucial decider at the Al Amerat Cricket Ground on Thursday.

• A win for Japan will take them level on 4 points with the Gulf country, but they will continue to remain in fourth place due to the UAE's superior net run rate (provided the margin of victory is not enormous).

• Japan would then need to beat Oman on Friday to guarantee a place in the 2026 T20 World Cup.

Essentially, Japan needs to win both its fixtures to ensure qualification.

Qatar is fifth in the points table and has a net run rate of -0.594.

The Muhammad Waseem-led side has managed to win only one out of its three Super Six matches so far. It does have a reasonably easy fixture considering its opponent is Samoa, which has failed to register any points in the Super Six stage and also has a NRR of -2.025. But it will rely heavily on the results of other fixtures to have any chance of making the cut.

• Qatar would need Japan to beat the UAE on Thursday by a handsome margin and then expect itself to beat Samoa by a huge margin to overhaul the UAE in their NRR. Qatar would then require Oman to do a huge favour by beating Japan by another large margin, which would propel Qatar to 3rd place and secure the final spot.

Samoa is last in the points table and has a net run rate of -2.025. Any chances of qualification for Samoa are only mathematical.

Not only would Samoa need to beat Qatar and Nepal, but it will have to do so by big margins to ensure its NRR improves to overhaul the UAE's and Japan's NRR.

The 2026 T20 World Cup is slated to be held in India and Sri Lanka in February-March 2026.

India and Sri Lanka have qualified for the 2026 edition of the T20 world cup as the co-hosts.

Afghanistan, Australia, Bangladesh, England, South Africa, USA, and West Indies were the top 7 teams from the previous tournament (excluding hosts, USA and West Indies were part of that group of 7 teams that qualified based on their 2024 performance of reaching the Super 8s), which guaranteed them a place in the 2026 T20 World Cup.

Ireland, New Zealand, and Pakistan made the cut basis their ICC T20I rankings.

Namibia and Zimbabwe progressed through the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Qualifier 2025.

Italy and Netherlands progressed through the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Europe Qualifier 2025.

Canada qualified through the Americas Qualifier.

Oman and Nepal joined the above teams through the on-going ICC Men's T20 World Cup East Asia Pacific Qualifier 2025.