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ICICI Securities Report
Reuters' Singapore gross refining margin has recovered to eight-month high in October 2020-to-date.
However, diesel cracks, though up from September 2020 lows, remain weak and are down QoQ in October 2020-to-date.
The following recent data raises hopes of recovery in diesel cracks -
1. diesel consumption in India is up 8.8% YoY during October 01-15 versus 6-56% YoY fall in April-September, and that in U.S. and Spain is down just 4-8% YoY;
2. U.S. refiners' distillate yield is down from 35.8% at peak in April 2020 to 25.7% in early-October 2020; and
3. U.S. distillate inventory is down 9% from approximately 38-year high in end-July 2020 and, at its recent rate of fall, may decline to five-year average levels in six to 14 weeks.
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