Greenpanel's MDF revenue fell 15% YoY, driven by 20% YoY drop in volumes, despite a 34% increase in export volumes. Domestic volumes decreased by 25% YoY, due to discontinuation of commercial grade MDF. However, realizations improved 6% YoY, driven by a 7% YoY increase in domestic realization and a 10% increase in export realizations.
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IDBI Capital Report
Greenpanel Industries Ltd.'s Q4 FY25 performance exceeded our expectations, led by a government grant under EPCG Scheme. Revenue declined 6% YoY to Rs 3.7 billion, due to weak performance across segments. Consolidated Ebitda margin contracted by 20 bps YoY to 12.8%, aided by Rs 350 million EPCG grant. Adjusted for the grant, Ebitda margin was 3.5%.
Management expects to receive the remaining Rs 510 million EPCG grant of over next six-eight months. Looking ahead, management targets MDF volumes of 550,000 CBM and an Ebitda margin of 12% in FY26.
The new MDF facility has commenced operations with expected capacity utilization reaching 35% by FY26. We have cut FY26/FY27 estimates by 16%/17%, respectively.
We value the stock at 22x FY27E EPS to derive a target price of Rs 252 (earlier Rs 338). We maintain Hold rating on the stock.
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