(Bloomberg) --
In June 2017, when President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement, many worriedย other countries wouldย follow suit. Those fears haven't come to pass, even as the U.S. officially exits the accordย on Nov. 4 โย the day after the presidential election.ย
If anything, seasoned climate watchers have been pleasantly surprised to see Asian nations includingย China, Japan and South Korea publicly setย goalsย to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions before 2050 or 2060. The U.S. is the only one among the world's five biggest economies that hasn't made such a pledge. What explains the turn of events?
โIt's a process of systems transformation,โ said Nigel Topping, the U.K.'s climate champion forย the COP26 global climate conference. โWhen you've got credible pathways, you've got the next generation saying โyou better bloody do it,'ย you've got scientists saying we have to do it,ย then businesses and investors startย coming on board and policy makers start ratcheting up ambition.โ
Japan is the clearest example of that. โFor the last 10 or 15 years, climate policy had stagnated,โ said Yusuke Matsuo, director of business and climate at Japan'sย Institute for Global Environmental Strategies. โThe bottleneck was strong opposition from the industry.โ
With little land to spare and few fossil-fuel reserves of its own, Japan relies heavilyย on imported coal and gas to meet its electricity demand and foreignย oil to fuel its vehicles. Even though transitioning away from polluting sources of energy would have made economic sense for the country, it would have hurt the short-term profits of heavy industry and utilities.
That position, however, became untenable after the EU and China put forth net-zero pledges in the past year. โCountries are being forced to ask: do they want to be spectators or do they want play the game?โ said Maria Mendiluce, chief executive officer of We Mean Business, a nonprofit that works with businesses to cut their emissions.
Matsuo saysย 150 companies are now part of the Japan Climate Leaders' Partnership โย a coalition of businesses pushing for more aggressive climate policiesย โย and their combined revenueย exceeds those of the large companies that oppose regulations to cut greenhouse gases. After Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga pledgedย last week that Japan would seek to be carbon neutral by 2050,ย many companies that were previously neutral on climate action reached out toย JCLP, according to Matsuo. โDomestic pressure and diplomatic pressure enableย Japan to make the net-zero declaration possible,โ he said.
The U.S. is in a position to accelerate the transition that's being embraced by a growing number of countries. What it chooses to do still matters. Japan's net-zero target isn't law yet andย still needs to win the approval of lawmakers over the next few months. โIf Biden wins, I see a clear direction for moving forward,โ said Matsuo, referring to Democratic candidate Joeย Biden, who has vowed that the U.S. will re-join the agreement on his first day in office.
If Trump is re-elected, he'sย likely to stay the course and keep the U.S., which accounts for 15% of global emissions, out of the Paris framework for at least four more years. That will embolden fossil-fuel giants like Saudi Arabia and Australia or populist leaders in countries like Brazilย that have been blocking progress on financing the energy transition.
Given the resilience of the Paris agreement so far, they might be fighting a losing battle. While Trump has rolled back environmental regulations and supportedย fossil fuel companies over the last four years, he hasn't managed to bring back coal or slowย the uptake of renewable energy. This year'sย precipitous drop in oil prices likelyย meansย the U.S. may not regain its title asย the world's largest oil producer.
If the last four years are any indication, local governments in the U.S. and most businesses will continue to push for more progressive climate policies. If Biden wins, he'll be primed to ride aย wave of changing sentiment both at home and abroad.ย A second-term Trump who tries to push back against the growing consensus could do real damage to the U.S.'s political and economic standing.
โThe risk is that a federal administration which is backpedaling on climate change kills whole sectors of the American economy,โ said Topping. โObstinately trying to play King Canute to the inevitability of science, society, technology, economics and investor pressure could still make things really bad for ordinary American working class.โ
Akshat Rathi writes the Net Zero newsletter on the intersection of climate science and emission-free tech. You can email him with feedback.
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