Cyclone Update: Low-Pressure System Unlikely To Intensify, Says IMD; Predicts Heavy Rain For Western Coast

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has changed its forecast on the probability of a low-pressure area forming into a full-fledged cyclone over the Arabian Sea. Earlier, the IMD had stated that the system could transform into a depression, which was set to intensify further.

If the depression intensified into a cyclonic storm, it would be called Cyclone Shakhti, meaning "power". However, the IMD's latest update on the cyclonic storm has reduced the possibility of the deep depression intensifying into a cyclone.

In its latest update, the IMD has stated that the well-marked low-pressure area over the east central Arabian Sea has “low to moderate vertical wind shear, poleward outflow and warm sea conditions.” The prevalence of equatorial waves like the Rossby and Kelvin waves and strong easterly and westerly wind anomalies (5 to 7 pms) will help in the maintenance of the low-pressure area, but the close proximity to the coast is slowing down the development of the depression. 

It added that the potential for the low-pressure system to develop into a depression remained moderate over the next 24 hours. The system is expected to move northwards.

The latest model guidance by the IMD has withdrawn the development of a depression over the Arabian Sea. The organisation has assured that it will keep a watch on the developments. 

An account tracking Mumbai rains on X posted a similar update as the IMD, adding that the closeness to the coast will weaken the low-pressure area.

The weather agency has stated that a low-pressure area will form around the north and west-central Bay of Bengal on May 27. The system will likely intensify in the two days following its formation. The department has admitted that there is divergence among different models with regard to the genesis and classification of the system.

In its latest weather bulletin, the IMD has warned of “heavy to very heavy rainfall” over the west coast during the next seven days. This includes the region of Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala. There is a possibility of extremely heavy rainfall over Konkan and Goa between May 23 and 25. Coastal and South Interior Karnataka regions are likely to experience heavy showers from May 24 to 27. Madhya Maharashtra is expected to receive heavy rainfall on May 25.

Conditions are likely to become favourable for the onset of monsoon over Kerala during the next two days, according to the IMD forecast. The southwest monsoon may move towards more parts of South Arabian Sea; some portions of the Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu; remaining parts of Maldives and Comorin area, some more parts of the South, North and Central Bay of Bengal, and some parts of Northeastern states during the same period.