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ICICI Securities Report
White goods and durables companies benefitted significantly in the previous capex and infrastructure upcycle of FY02-FY08. Most companies under our coverage reported 20% plus revenue and Ebitda compound annual growth rates over FY02-08.
Segments such as switches and switchgear, cable and wires, commercial refrigeration, commercial air conditioning, business-to-business lighting were key beneficiaries.
Green shoots of capex revival and benefits for durables companies are visible in H2 FY23 and Q1 FY24 results.
We model the companies under our coverage – such as Havells India Ld., Voltas Ltd., V-Guard Industries Ltd., 3M India Ltd.– to be key beneficiaries of the revival.
There are more opportunities in FY23 versus FY02 given:
Production linked incentive benefits;
better research and development, distribution, manufacturing and branding ability of durables companies; and
emergence of new sectors like emerging markets, data centres and steep increase in capex by railways.
However, we also note:
the revenue share of B2B segment at beginning of FY02 was higher than in FY23, and
the competitive intensity has also materially increased.
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