The final full week of the current financial year witnessed a host of significant developments that could shape the upcoming new fiscal 2026-27 (FY27) beginning next week. As March draws to a close, several high-stakes developments kept the week buzzing for the economy and domestic market. Some of these were the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations between Trump and Iranian leaders, stock market crash over geopolitical risk premium, excise relief on petrol prices, and a lot more. In global markets, benchmark Brent crude oil remained elevated over esclation of Middle East tensions which impacted domestic prices.
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Here's a recap of the week that was:
Markets on home turf
Domestic benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 declined for a fifth straight week, their longest losing streak in eight months, as fraught Middle East ceasefire negotiations and elevated crude oil prices intensified foreign outflows and battered the rupee. For the week, the indices lost 1.3%, with the broader small-caps and mid-caps losing 0.6% and 1.4%, respectively.
The rupee settled at a record low of 94.8125 per dollar, as oil prices dampened economic and earnings outlook for the world's third-largest crude oil importer, sparking record monthly foreign outflows. Notably, Nifty and Sensex have declined 9.5% each since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on Feb. 28, and the volatility index or India VIX spiked to 27.09, hovering at its highest since June 2024.
Brent crude oil spike
Global crude oil prices notched weekly gains, reflecting scepticism about prospects for a ceasefire in the month-old Iran war. Brent crude futures rose by $4.56, or 4.2%, to $112.57 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures rose $5.16, or 5.5%, to settle at $99.64. The Brent benchmark has jumped 53% since Feb. 27, the day before the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, while WTI has gained 45% since then. On a weekly basis, Brent gained about 0.3%, while WTI gained over 1%.
The Iran war has taken about 11 million barrels per day out of global oil supply, with the International Energy Agency describing the crisis as worse than the two 1970s oil shocks combined. According to most brokerages and analysts, oil prices are expected to remain high potentially climbing to $200 a barrel if Iranian export facilities are damaged.
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US-Iran war ceasefire talks
The US-Iran war has now continued for 29 days with the week buzzing with ceasefire negotiations between the two nations. US President Donald Trump has extended his deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz to April 6. He said he will hold off on bombing Iran's energy plants. Thousands more US troops neared the region, Israel poured more troops into southern Lebanon to fight the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, and Tehran tightened its grip on the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
India cuts excise duty on petrol, diesel
The government reduced the special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel amid elevated global crude oil prices. The Department of Revenue under the Ministry of Finance cut the excise on petrol to Rs 3 from Rs 13 per litre and on diesel to nil from Rs 10 per litre, according to a gazette notification issued late Thursday. The move is expected to benefit state-run oil marketing companies as they are incur losses on sales amid high crude rates while keeping pump prices steady.
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