Thermax expects to commission more than 10 bio-CNG plants a year over the next two to three years, Managing Director and chief executive Ashish Bhandari said, as government incentives under the Gobardhan scheme position the segment to become an "ethanol-like" growth story for the company.
Bhandari also said that it would generate an estimated Rs 1,000-1,500 crore in annual order inflows.
Speaking to NDTV Profit, Bhandari said recent price increases announced by the government, combined with state-level incentives tied to the Gobardhan scheme, had created the right conditions for the segment to scale meaningfully.
"The price increase that the government has given, along with both of the state incentives that are coming into play, has got the potential to make this an ethanol-like sector for the next few years," he said.
He added that the underlying technology had now matured. "The policy is supportive. The building blocks are in place. Technology is also now finally at a place that it is stable and relatively well understood," Bhandari said.
Thermax currently operates four bio-CNG plants and is looking to scale up sharply on the back of the improved policy backdrop.
"I do expect Thermax to do over the next two, three years, 10+ plants each year, I would say," Bhandari said, adding that this pace of commissioning would translate into "1,000 to 1,500 crores of overall order book value" annually as these plants convert into revenue.
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The bio-CNG push forms one of three growth levers Bhandari flagged for the company, alongside data centre-linked orders, currently 5-10% of Thermax's order book, with the US identified as the biggest opportunity, and India's ongoing thermal power capex cycle, which he compared to the 2008-2012 power boom.
"If you're looking at three tailwinds, one would be data centers... Second would be on India's power growth and thermal... And then the last bit, if I had to say, CBG and Bio-CNG," he said.
The comments come even as Thermax navigates a difficult stretch, having reported an 83% year-on-year drop in first-quarter profit due to a cost overrun on a legacy government project, higher shipping costs linked to the Gulf conflict, and rising steel prices.
Bhandari, however, expressed confidence that the company's overall revenue run-rate would strengthen through the rest of the financial year, underpinned by an order backlog exceeding Rs 14,000 crore.
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