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Brokerages rolled out fresh calls on IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, Adani Green, Swiggy, RIL and more, while also flagging trends across life insurance and Indian markets as a whole.
Macquarie on IndusInd Bank
- Maintain Underperform with TP of Rs 635
- Q4 FY26: ROA improves
- Significant beat to Q4FY26 estimates due to lower credit cost
- Need to see how deposit growth picks up
- No capital raising in FY27; ROEs to remain sub-par near term
Jefferies on IEX
- Maintain Underperform; Cut TP to Rs 100 from Rs 105
- Market coupling threat remains
- See 0% EPS CAGR in FY26-29E despite not assuming commission price cut
- Believe this regulation will accelerate the market share loss for the company
- Estimates factor 80%+ share in FY25-26 reducing to 60% by FY28E
- Remain concerned on profitability decline
Macquarie on RIL
- Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 1570
- Mar-Q: Soft print; Jio subs growth supportive
- Q4 miss led by softness in the Energy divisions and a lower margin in Retail
- Upstream Gas EBITDA is now in structural decline with KGD6 production past peak
- See additional downside risk related to weakness in the Energy segments
- Outperform-rated on Reliance as we see positive sentiment into the Jio listing
Macquarie on M&M Finance
- Maintain Underperform with TP of Rs 280
- Q4FY26: ROA at 2.4% is good, growth weak
- Q4FY26: PAT in line with estimates, lower opex offset by rise in provisions
- Higher NIM temporary; Elevated credit costs due to overlay
- Growth and ROA metrics lower than peers, maintain Underperform
Macquarie on Shriram Finance
- Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 1220
- A good year; focus now shifts to FY27
- Q4FY26: Opex control drives beat on PAT estimates
- Conservative margin outlook as focus shifts toward growth
- Credit cost under wraps, but remains a key monitorable
Jefferies on Hindustan Zinc
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 700
- Good Earnings Growth Momentum
- EPS has risen at 34% CAGR over FY24-26; expect a further 33% growth in FY27 led by higher metal prices
- Its 8.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA is above long-term average of 7.8x, but justified for rising share of silver in EBIT
- Silver to remain in deficit in 2026; Largely balanced market for zinc in 2026
Citi on Hindustan Zinc
- Maintain Sell; Cut TP to Rs 520 from Rs 585
- Q4 Slightly Ahead; Expect Downtrend in Zinc Prices
- 31% Dividend Payout in FY26 Disappoints
Citi on ICICI Lombard
- Maintain Sell with TP of Rs 1735
- See pressure on retail health claims ratio once new business moderates
- Multiple new entrants with strong capital backing are expected to commence operations in non-life insurance
- This could further amplify the competitive pressure, especially in retail segments
- Case for a motor TP tariff hike remains weak, especially against the backdrop of elevated commission construct
Kotak Securities on CIE Auto
- Maintain Reduce with TP of Rs 465
- Decent quarter aided by industry tailwinds
- Expect the CIE Automotive India business to marginally outperform domestic blended automotive industry growth
- EU automotive business trends remain muted; however, favorable translation should drive growth in INR terms
Bernstein on Paytm
- Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 1500
- Paytm - RBI cancels Payments Bank license
- No impact on current business/numbers
- Company had taken a write-off related to its investment - hence no one-offs expected either
- Paytm has no role in the current management/board, the harsh language in the RBI's letter is concerning
- For the super optimistic investor, this development could be seen as clearing the way for the company to apply for a NBFC or PPI license
- This can pave way for certain payments products (e.g. wallet) and credit products to be offered by Paytm
Jefferies on Paytm
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 1350
- Cancellation of Paytm Payments Bank's License has Low Impact for Paytm
- All of Paytm's services continue to be operational
- Buy call stays
MS on RIL
- Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 1803
- Positives: Better-than-expected Retail growth, led by quick commerce, fashion and grocery; FMCG revenue grew 2.2x
- Negatives: Oil-to-chemical margins underperformed peers, and Upstream oil and gas production division missed EBIDTA on higher costs
- Leveraging energy and chemical market tightness and sustained recovery in retail top-line growth is key for RIL to reverse its recent underperformance
- See signs of that emerging in chemicals, fuel and consumer retail
Jefferies on IndusInd Bank
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 1100 from Rs 1000
- Q4: Turning Around
- Earnings ahead of estimates aided by lower credit cost and higher treasury gains
- Leadership team & Board resets are largely done, quality of collaboration will be key
- Expect uptick in growth & improvement in profitability
- Valuations attractive; Buy call stays
Jefferies on Adani Green
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 1435 from Rs 1260
- Evacuation Issues Impact Capacity Addition
- EBITDA was 5% above expectations given lower operating expenses
- Mgmt highlighted that 4.5-5 GW is a more realistic capacity addition target vs their 7-8 GW capability given evacuation issues
- Lower FY27 addition estimate to 5 GW vs 6.3 GW earlier
- Company is on its way to delivering 50 GW by 2030 vs 19.3 GW current capacity
MS India Strategy
- Q1CY26 Ownership Trends: FPI Ownership at 16-year Low
- Domestic investors' ownership hit new highs whereas FPI ownership retreated to a 16-year low
- Expect strong institutional demand for primary issuances, alongside a potential pickup in buybacks
- Domestic ownership rose 40 bps QoQ, making a new high of 29%, led by institutional bid
- Controlling stakeholders' ownership recovered from multi-year lows
- Largest overweight and underweight positions for institutions are in Financials and Materials, respectively
Kotak Securities on GMR Airports
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 112
- Acquiring stake at an opportune point in the value cycle
- ~11% of shareholding on diluted basis transferred between promoters
- Deal suggests confidence of the GMR group in value addition in airports
- Key imponderable is the ability of the group to raise the remaining US$0.8 bn
- Next two years critical in the evolution of airport EBITDA
HSBC on Shriram Finance
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 1200 from Rs 1050
- Delivering amidst challenges
- Q4 earnings beat was driven by strong operating cost control, resulting in sharp expansion in RoAs
- Uncertain macro environment and weaker monsoon would be key monitorables for growth and asset quality outlook
HSBC on IndusInd Bank
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 1100 from Rs 880
- Course correction visible
- Q4 earnings performance underscores the gradual course correction being undertaken by management
- Increase FY27/28 EPS estimates by 20/10%, respectively, to build in stronger loan growth, margins, and lower credit costs
Bernstein on IndusInd Bank
- Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 1000
- Visible improvement in asset quality
- Signs of stabilization in the balance sheet
- RoA improvement led by lower credit costs
HSBC on Life Insurance
- Valuation reset creates opportunity
- Impact on valuations can be largely attributable to frequent changes to regulations; fundamental outlook remains robust
- Recent share price weakness has improved the risk-reward
- Current valuations imply modest VNB CAGR expectations
- Expect limited impact from evolving regulations and retain a positive outlook on sector
- Prefer SBI LIFE
- ICICI Pru Life – Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 690
- HDFC Life – Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 690
- SBI Life – Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 2270
HSBC on Hindustan Zinc
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 730 from Rs 720
- Strong zinc and sulfuric acid should offset higher costs and weak silver production
- Q4 earnings beat on higher volumes and lower costs; interim DPS of Rs 11/share declared for FY27
- Guidance for zinc-lead in line, silver marginally lower; higher sulfuric acid, LME to offset higher costs
CLSA on Swiggy
- Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 357
- Swiggy is scaling Toing, but what's the cost?
- Toing's profitability hinges on successful batching and ad monetisation
- Data indicate a rise in usage in the past two months
- Toing is seeing a rapid pickup in consumer adoption, as per app usage and download data
- Initiative seeks to scale volumes, improve logistics efficiency and widen the addressable market
- Early traction appears strong, indicating rising acceptance of a value-led proposition
- We are concerned about the effect on profitability of Toing and the main app due to cannibalisation of the customer base
Jefferies on Axis Bank
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 1700 from Rs 1660
- Q4: Slight Miss, but Core Trends Are Improving; Stays Among Top Picks
- Loan growth pick-up led by corporate; disbursement uptick to lift retail growth
- Deposit moderates slightly; Asset quality continues to improve
- Raise estimates and see valuations attractive
Jefferies on Shriram Finance
- Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 1210 from Rs 1220
- March Q Results: Profit Beat on Lower Opex; Mixed Core Trends
- AUM growth and NIM was tad below our estimate
- GNPA was steady, but GS2 inched up QoQ
- AUM growth can lag Mgmt target, but NIMs should surprise positively & offset this
- Expect 17% EPS CAGR & ROE of 13/14% over FY27-28; Valuations seem reasonable
Jefferies on IDFC First
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 82
- Q4: Improving Core Trends; Tad Lower NIM Drives Slight Est Cuts
- Credit quality continues to improve; Tad softer growth in loans and deposits
- Trim estimates by 3% to factor in results, but profitability should see marked improvement with lower credit costs
- ROA to reach 1% by FY28
MS on Can Fin Homes
- Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 1000
- Q4: PBT beat of 2%; Disbursements beat of 10%
- Disbursements growth, a key monitorable; Run-offs remain elevated
- Loan growth was led by non-housing loans
- NII missed; reported loan spread fell 1 bps QoQ on 8 bps lower yields
- Borrowing costs fell against expectation of stable QoQ
- Had highlighted successive quarters of NIM beats prior to Q4 could be a potential timing difference
- Await management's outlook on NIM, loan growth
MS on L&T Finance
- Maintain Underweight with TP of Rs 160
- Q4: Largely in line results; ROE<COE
- PPOP was 2% below our estimates
- MFI collections were largely normalized
- Continue to see risks to our estimates and consensus on loan growth and NIM
- Below consensus EPS estimates by 14% in FY27 and 15% in FY28
Citi on Shriram Finance
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 1180 from Rs 1160
- In-line Core; Headwinds Weigh on Growth/Credit Cost
- Growth steady; persistent headwinds may pose risk to 18-20% growth target
- MUFG equity infusion fortifies the balance sheet, providing robust capital buffers to navigate macro uncertainties and absorb potential credit risks
Citi on M&M Finance
- Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 380 from Rs 425
- NIMs/Spreads Sustain, Buffers Cushion; Growth Ramp-Up to Watch
- GS3/GS2 at multi-year lows; Overlay buffer elevated prudently
- Prolonged geopolitical conflict may weigh on underlying vehicles sales
Kotak Securities on Axis Bank
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 1600 from Rs 1500
- Stable core performance; provisions do not derail the thesis
- A few one-offs but internals look comfortable
- Growth accelerating across segments; NIM takes an impact
- Significant relative re‑rating versus peers has already occurred, making further outperformance materially harder to sustain
Kotak Securities on RIL
- Q4: Below estimates on weak O2C and E&P
- O2C: Crude sourcing challenges, high costs, product diversion and SAED
- Retail: Relatively subdued on weaker volume recovery and further decline in margins
- E&P: Impacted by declining volumes, lower realization and higher costs
MS on RBL Bank
- Maintain Equal-weight with TP of Rs 305
- Q4: Miss driven by lower NIM
- PAT was below largely led by lower NII and lower fees
- Credit costs stayed elevated due to higher slippages in credit cards
- Stay Equal-weight on valuations
MS on IndusInd Bank
- Maintain Equal-weight with TP of Rs 730
- Good quarter; Gradual improvement in profitability ahead
- PAT beat was led by lower provisions driven by lower slippages and credit costs
- Core PPoP saw a 4% miss led by lower core fees however was supported by lower operating expenses
- Balance sheet growth remained subdued
MS on Axis Bank
- Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 1575
- Good risk-adjusted outcome
- Q4 gross and net slippages fell sharply
- Core PPOP missed estimates due to lower core fees and higher costs
- Balance sheet grew robustly and has been strengthened for macro risks
MS on IDFC First Bank
- Maintain Equal-weight with TP of Rs 65
- Q4FY26: Good core progression
- Core PPOP was 2% estimates aided by higher core fees and inline NII
- Lower credit costs led by lower slippages across MFI and other segments
- Headline PAT, helped by tax breaks
Kotak Securities on M&M Finance
- Upgrade to Buy from Reduce; Hike TP to Rs 350 from Rs 340
- Tightening the belt
- Core earnings beat in Q4FY26
- Better-placed for a challenging year ahead
- Growth tepid, scaling selectively
- Valuations are inexpensive, ignoring the positive changes
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