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Motilal Oswal Report
The government has restricted exports of diesel and petrol stating that 50% of what is exported, must be sold in India, meaning ~66% of production can be exported while the rest 33% has to be sold in the domestic market.
On export of diesel, petrol and aviation turbine fuel, the government has imposed duties of Rs 13/ 6/6 per liter, respectively. This corresponds to a hit of ~Rs 27/12/12 per barrel of oil in crack spreads of diesel/petrol/ATF, which are likely to hit the gross refining margin of Reliance Industries Ltd. by $8/bbl.
However, it may be noted that the crack spreads of diesel/petrol/ATF have risen to $40/33/39 per bbl in Q1 FY23 from the long-term average (20- year) of $12/11/13 per bbl, respectively.
Even after the knock, the revised crack spreads of $28/21/27 per bbl for diesel/petrol/ATF remained significantly higher than the long-term averages, respectively.
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