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ICICI Securities Report
The Reserve Bank of India raised the policy repo rate by 40 basis points, effectively reversing its similar-sized rate cut of May 22, 2020. The market was surprised, as the hike occurred at an unscheduled meeting of its monetary policy committee four weeks after its last meeting, and five weeks prior to its next scheduled one.
A deterioration in the near-term inflation outlook was to blame, with crude-oil still elevated and palm oil at all-time highs. The deterioration in the geopolitical outlook will delay new supplies of oil/gas, thereby obliging the RBI to raise rates a further 75 basis points by September 2022.
This will be bad for rate-sensitives, but we expect domestic demand to gain momentum in H2 FY23, from the export-led strength in H1.
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