- Jefferies maintains a buy rating on MCX with a Rs 4,000 target price
- MCX shares fell 12% in a month, mirroring gold price corrections
- Energy contracts contribute 60% of MCX's transaction revenue, surpassing estimates
Jefferies has kept its ‘buy' rating on Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. with a target price of Rs 4,000 apiece. The brokerage said the recent fall in the stock is a chance to buy.
The target price implies an upside of 32.4% from the last closing price of Rs 3,020.3.
MCX shares have fallen 12% over the past month, in line with the correction in gold prices, according to Jefferies. But the brokerage said the market is overlooking the exchange's bigger exposure to energy.
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Energy Over Bullion
Gold bullion accounts for only about 40% of MCX's transaction revenue, Jefferies said. The other 60% comes from energy contracts, where average daily turnover in September and October has been ahead of the brokerage's estimates.
Average daily turnover in energy options rose 44% month-on-month in September. The trend has continued in October, with month-to-date options turnover at Rs 9,200 crore, 48% above August levels.
If this pace holds through the third quarter, it could lift MCX's FY27 net profit estimates by 4–5%, Jefferies said. The brokerage called the stock a hedge against crude volatility.
The note comes as gold remains under pressure. Spot gold hovered near $4,000 an ounce on Monday, close to a three-month low, after a weekly fall of more than 4%, its worst since June. Traders are waiting for the US Federal Reserve's policy decision this week.
The yellow metal has corrected by nearly 30%, as compared to the record high of $5,608.35 per ounce it scaled in January 2026.
On MCX, gold futures last settled at Rs 1,42,024 per 10 grams. That is about 21% below the record high set in January.
Crude oil eased on Monday but stayed elevated after nearing six-month highs last week. The benchmark Brent was trading 1.99% lower at $114.4 per barrel, not far away from the high of $126 scaled in April-end, when the US-Iran conflict was at its peak.
High crude prices tend to drive hedging and trading activity in energy contracts on the exchange.
MCX Share Price Today
At 9:41 a.m., MCX shares were trading 0.09% higher at Rs 3,023 apiece on the NSE. The broader market was weaker, with the Sensex down over 500 points and the Nifty 50 below 22,400. The stock traded between Rs 2,985 and Rs 3,035 in early trade and is about 13% below its 52-week high of Rs 3,481.40.
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