- Maruti Suzuki shares fell to a five-month low, down for seven straight days
- Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, and Citi cut target prices despite positive demand outlook
- Maruti’s passenger vehicle market share dropped to a 13-year low near 40 percent
The shares of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. fell to five-month low on Thursday, extending the fall for the seventh consecutive day. This comes as brokerages trim earnings estimates and target prices even as they remain constructive on near-term demand trends.
Jefferies, Morgan Stanley and Citi have all cut target prices on Thursday. While Jefferies cut the target price to Rs 16,000, Morgan Stanley has revised it to Rs 17,804. Citi retained a Buy rating while cutting its target price to Rs 18,200 from Rs 19,000.
Jefferies remains positive on India's passenger vehicle demand and Maruti's export growth, supported by easing liquidity, GST cuts, upcoming government wage hikes and improving registrations. However, it is skeptical about any meaningful improvement in domestic market share or margins. Maruti's PV market share has fallen to a 13-year low of around 40% in the first nine months, reflecting the industry's shift toward SUVs, where the company's presence has historically been weaker.
While the new SUV Victoris has seen encouraging traction, Jefferies believes margin improvement will remain modest as the company prioritises regaining market share amid intense competition and rising commodity prices. As a result, the brokerage cut FY26–FY28 EPS estimates by 3–5% and continues to prefer Mahindra & Mahindra in the passenger vehicle space.
Morgan Stanley believes Maruti's strong volume growth, combined with valuations that are below the sector median, justifies its overweight stance. However, it has trimmed fiscal year 2026 and financial year 2027 earnings estimates to factor in sustained commodity cost pressures that could cap near-term margin expansion.
Citi added that while commodity costs are rising, management expects operating leverage from higher volumes to offset margin pressures, making volume growth critical for profitability. The brokerage modestly cut its EBIT and profit estimates for FY26–FY28 but continues to see Maruti as well positioned given improving demand and market share trends.
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Maruti Suzuki Share Price Today
The shares of Maruti Suzuki India fell as much as 3.52% to Rs 14,353 apiece on Thursday, highest level since Aug. 25. It pared losses to trade 2.29% lower at Rs 14,536 apiece, as of 9:39 a.m. This compares to a 0.48% advance in the NSE Nifty 50 Index.
It has fallen 20.64% in the last 12 months and 13.50% year-to-date. Total traded volume so far in the day stood at 1.97 times its 30-day average and 0.37 times its 20-day average. The relative strength index was at 45.97.
Out of 49 analysts tracking the company, 39 maintain a 'buy' rating, eight recommend a 'hold,' and two suggest 'sell,' according to Bloomberg data. The average 12-month consensus price target stands at Rs 17,596 indicating an upside of 21.2%.
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