(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. stock market session Monday would have been a lot worse without a final-hour rally that left the Nasdaq-100 index up for the day and kept the S&P 500 from dropping into a correction.
Both gauges had been down around 1.5% a little before 3 p.m. on Monday in New York, before making up ground. Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP said the way the session ended indicates investor exuberance is less pronounced than it once was. Sundial Capital Research Inc. said the intraday turnaround was a good sign.
Susquehanna's Chris Murphy had been watching to see if both indexes ended above their July 31 closing levels of 10,906 and 3,271, respectively, which they managed to achieve. “While that alone isn't an indication the markets will rally, this could be an indication that much of the froth from August has been removed from the market,” he wrote in a note.
The Nasdaq-100 closed with a gain of at least 0.25% after recovering from a dip of more than 2% to a one-month low -- while holding above its 200-day moving average -- seven other times in the past three decades, according to Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital. That led to further upside over the next week after six of the seven signals, he wrote in a note, adding the weight of evidence suggests “higher prices long term.”
Both indexes have fallen from their Sept. 2 record highs, with the Nasdaq-100 entering a correction after sliding 12%. They are still sitting on substantial gains from mid-March lows.
The question confronting investors is whether further weakness lies ahead due to risks such as rising coronavirus cases, U.S. election uncertainty and diminishing chances of further fiscal stimulus amid a seasonally weak period for stocks. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 as of 10:10 a.m. in London pointed to a stable open on Wall Steet on Tuesday.
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