Beyond The Shine — How To Play Gold And Silver In 2026?

Precious metals may no longer deliver the eye-popping returns seen in 2025, but they remain critical portfolio assets, according to Kunal Shah, Head of Commodity Research at Nirmal Bang Securities. After a year that delivered once-in-a-generation returns, the risk of a sharp crash in precious metals remains low, said Shah in an interview to NDTV Profit.

Supply, he pointed out, has barely responded to the dramatic rise in prices. Mine output has not surged, inventories remain tight, and structural constraints continue to cap how quickly new supply can enter the market. Shah noted the days of runaway rallies are likely behind us.

"The kind of 50–75% upside we’ve already seen will be very difficult from here," Shah said, adding that investors should now recalibrate expectations.

Shah remains structurally bullish on gold, citing a surge in new-age demand and deep-rooted fears around monetary instability. "What we are seeing now is a kind of demand we’ve never seen before," he said, pointing to crypto-linked gold holdings and rising institutional interest.

Concerns over aggressive money printing by global central banks continue to support gold prices, Shah added, even as rate hikes fail to fully anchor inflation expectations.

"In spite of rate hikes, markets are not convinced inflation will stay under control. Central banks are still infusing liquidity, directly or indirectly," he said. "So what is your hedge? Gold."

Shah expects gold to deliver 15–20% returns over the next 12–18 months, outperforming fixed income and potentially even equities.

Silver, however, sits on a more fragile footing after its sharp rally. While its dual role as a precious and industrial metal has amplified gains, it also leaves prices vulnerable to profit-taking. Shah expects higher volatility in silver and advises investors to wait for corrections before adding fresh exposure.

Gold, by contrast, is likely to outperform on a risk-adjusted basis over the next 12 to 18 months. "People ignored gold at much lower prices and now want to allocate aggressively after a massive rally," he said, pointing out that it's not the right approach.

For investors already holding gold, the advice is to stay invested. For those without exposure, Shah recommends staggered entry rather than lump-sum allocation, preferably through gold ETFs, which offer low costs and ease of access.

Above all, he stresses that asset allocation discipline remains non-negotiable. Gold may have behaved like a momentum asset in 2025, but its true role hasn’t changed. As markets move from euphoria to equilibrium, the metal’s next chapter is likely to reward patience over bravado.