Gold and silver prices traded lower on Friday as India celebrates Dhanteras ahead of Diwali, following a drop in international bullion prices amid renewed worries over inflation.
MCX gold price traded lower by Rs 2,339, or 1.62%, at Rs 1,41,756 per 10 grams, while MCX silver price fell by Rs 3,139, or 1.68%, to Rs 1,84,001 per kg.
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During the day, MCX gold price fell by Rs 2,377, or 1.64%, to an intraday low of Rs 1,41,718 level, while MCX silver price declined by Rs 3,440, or 1.83%, to Rs 1,83,700 level.
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In the global markets, gold prices declined as a rebound in crude oil prices raised inflation worries and increased expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,063.39 per ounce, but was up 4% so far this week. US gold futures for December delivery dropped 1% to $4,072.90.
“MCX gold is displaying marginally greater resilience than silver, as the latter, being the higher-beta precious metal, is witnessing relatively sharper losses. A slightly stronger rupee is also limiting the currency-related support that domestic gold prices might otherwise receive during the international market correction,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
While a weaker dollar and easing US Treasury yields supported gold earlier in the week, the upcoming US payrolls report could alter expectations around monetary policy and influence the next directional move.
According to Ponmudi, the near-term bias remains cautiously weak, with a sustained recovery above Rs 1,43,700 needed to stabilise prices. A decisive break below Rs 140,000 could trigger a deeper correction towards Rs 1,38,300.
A decline in gold prices on Dhanteras is expected to boost physical demand in the domestic retail market, as purchasing gold and silver is traditionally considered auspicious during the festive season.
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Dhanteras To Dhanteras Returns
Gold prices remain significantly higher than a year ago despite the recent correction. On Dhanteras 2025, MCX gold prices hovered around Rs 1,27,000 per 10 grams. In comparison, gold is trading near Rs 1,42,000 per 10 grams on Dhanteras 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of more than 11%.
Additionally, gold price has delivered an absolute return of nearly 200% over the past five years, from Dhanteras 2021 to the run-up ahead of Dhanteras 2026.
The price of gold in the domestic market has surged from Rs 47,600 per 10 grams in November 2021 to approximately Rs 1,42,750 in late October 2026 before Dhanteras, translating into a phenomenal CAGR of 24.53%.
On 28 January 2026, international spot gold peaked at an all-time high of $5,589 per ounce, pushing domestic prices to around Rs 1.80 lakh per 10 grams. The subsequent unwinding of leveraged positions, triggered by a hawkish transition to Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve leadership and elevated CME margin calculations, forced a sharp technical correction in gold of around 20%.
Should You Invest In Gold On Dhanteras
Dhruv Joglekar, Assistant Fund Manager, Monarch PMS, believes gold price's returns since last Dhanteras still comfortably beats typical capital-protection baselines in a highly volatile year,.
According to Monarch Networth Capital, the violent 30% correction in 2026 was a technical deleveraging event within an ongoing bull cycle, rather than a fundamental trend reversal.
Monarch PMS' valuation of gold — basis above-ground gold stock (~221,700 t) valued against reserve-currency (US M2 fully + 50% euro-area M2) — prices the yellow metal in the range of $3,248–4,595, with a midpoint of $3,922.
“For long-term investors, this Dhanteras represents a classic entry point. Speculative froth has been purged, while the underlying macroeconomic tailwinds remain intact,” said Joglekar.
Axis Securities said current gold prices appear attractive for investors, having corrected more than 20% from their peak.
“This presents long-term investors who missed the rally with a compelling opportunity to add gold in a staggered manner to their existing portfolios. We may expect some volatility in the yellow metal due to hike interest rate. However, should favourable developments materialise, we expect gold to deliver returns of approximately 20–25% by next Dhanteras, with target prices of Rs 1,65,000–Rs 1,71,000,” said the brokerage firm.
Technical Outlook
According to Ponmudi, MCX gold is likely to face immediate resistance at Rs 1,43,000 – Rs 1,43,700, followed by Rs 1,45,300 – Rs 1,46,000. On the downside, immediate support lies at Rs 1,40,000 – Rs 1,41,000, with the next important support zone at Rs 1,37,500 – Rs 1,38,300.
The RSI, currently near 43, remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating that the recent recovery lacks sufficient momentum, he added.
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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the investment advisers on NDTV Profit are of their own and not of NDTV Profit. NDTV Profit advises users to consult with their own financial or investment adviser before taking any investment decision.
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