- Oil prices surged as Trump rejected Iran's latest Middle East conflict proposal
- Brent crude rose 3.5% to $104.80, WTI neared $99 amid geopolitical risks
- Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue, limiting global crude and LNG supplies
Oil prices surged on Monday after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to end the conflict in the Middle East, dashing hopes of a quick breakthrough and reinforcing fears that the Strait of Hormuz will remain severely disrupted. Brent crude rose as much as 3.5% to $104.80 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed toward $99. The move extended the geopolitical risk premium that has gripped energy markets since the conflict began in late February.
In a social media post, Trump described Tehran's response as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” underscoring how fragile ceasefire efforts remain despite weeks of intermittent negotiations and temporary pauses in hostilities.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of the world's crude, liquefied natural gas and refined fuels normally passes, remains the focal point for traders. Since the start of the war, shipping through the narrow waterway has fallen to a fraction of usual levels, choking supplies and fuelling inflation concerns across major economies.
The International Energy Agency has described the conflict as one of the most severe supply shocks ever faced by global oil markets.
Although the Saudi Aramco and the United Arab Emirates have managed to reroute limited cargoes, the disruption remains substantial. Amin Nasser warned that oil markets may not fully normalise until 2027 if shipping constraints persist for several more weeks.
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Wall Street Braces For Prolonged Disruption
A survey by Goldman Sachs Group found that most respondents expect disruptions in Hormuz to continue well into the second half of the year. More than 4,000 lots of Brent's July contract changed hands in the first five minutes of trading, far above recent averages. Brent's prompt spread widened to nearly $4 a barrel in backwardation, a bullish structure that signals strong demand for immediate supplies.
The security situation remains volatile. A drone strike over the weekend briefly set a cargo vessel ablaze off the coast of Qatar, while the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait said they intercepted hostile drones.
Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu, in a CBS interview, warned that the war with Iran is “not over,” and Trump is expected to press Xi Jinping on China's support for Tehran during their upcoming meeting.
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