Prime Minister Narendra Modi's re-election bid, global trade war led by U.S. President Donald Trump and crude prices are among the key factors that will decide how the Indian stock market fares this year, according to a BloombergQuint poll of market participants.
The majority of 27 respondents had a conservative estimate for the benchmark Nifty 50. They expect crude's upper range to be $70-75 a barrel and see the rupee in 70-75 range against the dollar—the levels that contributed to the selloff in 2018.
Here's what they expect in 2019:
Nifty 50
The majority of market participants don't expect the benchmark to break above 12,000 even in the best-case scenario.
Modi And Market
The respondents expect the market to surge if Narendra Modi returns as prime minister or even if the Bharatiya Janta Party manages to form the government with the help of allies after the general election.
Other Risks
Crude, trade war and the rupee are the top factors to watch out for.
Trump's Tantrum
Sectors To Buy And Avoid
An equal number of market participants recommended to buy and avoid information technology and oil & gas.
Most Preferred Stocks For 2019
The majority of market participants preferred private lenders led by ICICI Bank Ltd.
Rupee Forecast
Most respondents expect the pressure on the rupee to continue.
Crude Concerns
If it hits the upper end of the forecast, crude oil will remain a worry.
Gold
Uncertainty about equities could push safe-haven gold to as high as $1,500 an ounce.
Commodities Vs Stocks
Nearly all the respondents said commodities are unlikely to beat equities in returns.
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