(Bloomberg) -- Luigi Di Maio, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement's candidate for Italian premier, is unlikely to be given a chance to govern by President Sergio Mattarella even if he wins the March 4 election, according to a senior state official.
Polls before a blackout period was imposed on Feb. 17 suggested Five Star was on course to become the single biggest party but falling short of a parliamentary majority. However, Di Maio will only be given a mandate if he either wins a majority of seats or can forge a government with such backing, said the official, who asked not to be named discussing the head of state's moves after the vote.
Italy is facing political uncertainty next month with no clear winner expected to emerge. Di Maio has ruled out forming a coalition with rival forces, saying that he would seek their support for Five Star reforms instead. Mainstream parties have rejected this.
The priority for Mattarella, whose task it is to appoint a premier, will be to seek a figure able to win a parliamentary majority, the official said. The head of state could pick a politician or a technocrat as long as that figure was able to command the support of the legislature, the official added.
According to opinion polls published before the ban came into force, Five Star was the leading party, but it trailed a center-right coalition led by four-times premier Silvio Berlusconi. Neither were credited with a majority of seats, setting the stage for a hung parliament. In that scenario, difficult talks would probably then begin over a possible grand coalition based on Berlusconi's Forza Italia and the ruling Democratic Party led by ex-premier Matteo Renzi, the official said.
The official predicted “chaos” immediately after the election. However, Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni would stay in power during the negotiations which could last several weeks, ensuring continuity and the absence of a power vacuum although his government would be weakened, the official said.
Even if the March vote prompts political gridlock, as polls before the blackout period suggested, new elections would likely be put off until June 2019, according to the official. Mattarella would seek to ensure a new government focuses on getting the state budget through parliament by the end of this year, and on political forces working out a new electoral law -- possibly more first-past-the-post -- to avoid a repeat vote with the same system.
To contact the reporter on this story: John Follain in Rome at jfollain2@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alan Crawford at acrawford6@bloomberg.net, Ben Sills
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