(Bloomberg) --
The European Union looks set to reinforce the U.S. warning to China that Beijing would face serious consequences if it tried to cushion the blow of sanctions against Russia or provide Moscow with military support.
The EU and the U.S. have been coordinating closely ahead of a virtual EU-China summit on April 1 and will continue to do so in the days ahead, according to people familiar with the matter and diplomatic correspondence seen by Bloomberg. Communication with Beijing is set to be one of the topics that Joe Biden will discuss with EU leaders when they meet in Brussels Thursday and the U.S. president will be looking to agree on a common message.
Ambassadors from several major EU countries meeting last week pushed for the bloc to emphasize that the war in Ukraine is potentially a defining moment for the EU-China relationship as well as for Beijing's image as a global power, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. The bloc wants to encourage China to take a responsible stance by highlighting its role in defending a rules-based international system.
With the Western allies aligned on a powerful package of sanctions on the Russian economy and President Vladimir Putin trying to find room for maneuver, China's stance on the conflict in Ukraine is coming into sharper focus. Biden spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping for almost two hours on Friday and emphasized the potential fallout if Beijing were to materially back the Russian leader.
The Biden administration has said that Russia asked China for financial and military support and has cautioned Beijing both publicly and privately not to grant those requests. China has repeatedly denied that Moscow asked for help, with Beijing's envoy to the U.S. saying Sunday that it has not sent “weapons and ammunition to any party.”
Read More: Biden Warned Xi of ‘Consequences' for Backing Russia in War
Russia's invasion of Ukraine will be the main item on the agenda when Xi and the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang hold talks with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, who chairs the EU leaders' council.
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While the substance of the EU message is set to be similar to Biden's, most member states want Von der Leyen and Michel to couch it in a way that doesn't come across as a threat because they don't want to alienate Beijing, one of the people said. The EU wants to maintain its own approach to dealing with China rather than simply echoing the line from Washington, another European diplomat said.
A spokesman for Michel, the European Council President, didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
China so far has tried to paint its position as neutral on Ukraine, unwilling to upset Moscow even as high-level Chinese officials have defended Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. U.S. officials are engaging Xi personally also because, they argue, the situation is approaching a point where the idea of neutrality will no longer be tenable.
Some Biden administration officials have in the recent past been frustrated with the EU's reluctance to call out Beijing.
They're aware that Europe, with its more export-reliant economy, is worried about the potential fallout from publicly criticizing China the way American officials have. Still, the Biden officials said recent intelligence shared with the Europeans should be enough to bring the EU around. Biden will hold a call with European leaders Monday.
A spokesman for the National Security Council in Washington said the U.S. expects the EU to convey a similar message to the U.S. when Von der Leyen and Michel speak to Xi on April 1 and that the U.S. and EU are united in their efforts to support Ukraine.
Conspiracy Theories
Another factor in play is the EU's concern about China echoing a long-standing Russian conspiracy theory that the U.S. has used Ukrainian biolabs to develop weapons. The United Nations has said there's no evidence to support the claim and the U.S. has said that Russia may be pushing the narrative as in preparation for a “false flag“ effort to deflect blame if it uses chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine.
China has also increasingly embraced the Kremlin's narrative against NATO, with Xi opposing to the bloc's “further enlargement” in his Feb. 4 joint statement with Putin. Chinese diplomats routinely describe the U.S. as the “culprit” of the crisis due to the expansion of NATO, with Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng accusing NATO in a speech Saturday of trying to “flex muscle” in the Asia-Pacific region.
“One could well anticipate the consequences going down this path,” Le said, hours after Xi's phone call with Biden. “The crisis in Ukraine is a stern warning.”
Beijing has sought to prevent its fraught relations with Washington from spreading to Brussels, in part to prevent the two sides from cooperating further to counter global Chinese influence.
EU ambassadors were told last week that China is not currently circumventing the bloc's sanctions and that several Chinese firms had paused operations over worries that they could fall foul of the measures, one of the people said. However, there are some concerns that Chinese companies could step into the void left by Western firms pulling out of Russia.
Read More: U.S. Slams China for Pushing Russia's ‘Preposterous' Lab Theory
To offer further reassurance, U.S. officials have told their European counterparts that they'd discuss any potential consequences for China with Europe before they took any action were it to come to that.
The EU stance which is coming into focus ahead of next month's talks with Xi is a major shift from the last time the two sides held a leaders' summit almost two years ago, which led to an EU-China investment accord in December 2020 -- to the frustration of the Biden team who were still waiting to take office.
That agreement remains frozen after Beijing imposed sanctions on members of the European Parliament in response to EU measures against a small number of Chinese officials over human rights abuses in Xinjiang.
Since then, the EU has stepped up its actions against Chinese subsidies and launched a case at the World Trade Organization over coercive practices against one of its member states, Lithuania. China started blocking Lithuanian products after the government in Vilnius allowed Taiwan to open a representative office under the country's name instead of the capital, Taipei. Beijing considered the move a challenge to its sovereignty.
Read More: EU Launches WTO Case Against China Over Lithuania Blockade
Von der Leyen and Michel are expected to voice support for Lithuania when they speak to Xi and several countries asked that it be clear that China would need to remove sanctions before the investment agreement can come into force, according to two of the people. Human rights will be raised too, one of the people said, but the EU will also seek to cooperate with Beijing on issues such as climate change.
The EU-China summit is unlikely to deliver a joint statement, the European documents suggest, with each side more likely to put out its own communications after the meeting.
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
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