(Bloomberg) --
The omicron outbreak is likely to have only a “modest impact” on U.K. growth, according to high frequency data being monitored by Deutsche Bank.
Sanjay Raja, Deutsche's U.K. economist, said the government's Plan B restrictions were likely to have knocked only 0.4 percentage point from gross domestic product, spread across the final quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.
Flight activity increased over the Christmas period and restaurant bookings, as measured by OpenTable data, remain slightly above their pre-pandemic levels, he said. Meanwhile, box-office sales saw their biggest takings for the year over Christmas.
“Despite notable drops in mobility, train stations, retail, chemical parks, shopping malls, hotels, social hot-spots, and industrial estates have all registered materially smaller falls in activity compared to last year. In other words: so far, so good.”
Though more infectious than earlier variants, omicron has been less deadly with few patients on ventilators and deaths remaining relatively steady. The reduced risk of illness and the low level of restrictions has helped limit behavioral change.
The worst of the impact may be through staff absences, as more people test positive due to the transmissibility of omicron and are required to stay home.
Raja noted that a recent Bank of England survey found that 4.3% of employees were unable to work in December 2021, roughly the same proportion as back in April 2020.
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