A weak monsoon could undermine Narendra Modi government's attempts to revive the Indian economy.
The Indian Meteorological Department in its June 9 forecast had predicted that June-September rainfall is likely to be 93 per cent of the long-term average. So far the progression of monsoon has been very weak, with rainfall deficiency till June 25 at around 40 per cent.
However, there is some good news for the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who on Thursday chaired a high-level meeting to review the progress of the monsoon.
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DS Pai, director of long range forecast at the meteorological department, told NDTV that monsoon is likely to pick up in July.(Watch full interview)
Importantly, he said that the "El Nino impact has not been seen in the atmosphere so far." El Nino is a weather phenomenon that causes sea temperature to rise in the Pacific, disturbing the monsoon in South Asia. In its June forecast the meteorological department said there is 70 per cent chance that an El Nino-like situation can occur.
A weak monsoon could stoke the already high food inflation, which remains one the biggest worries for the Narendra Modi government. India's economy could suffer as agriculture employs nearly half of India's working population. According to industry body Assocham, a 1 per cent deficit in rains could hurt India's economic growth by 0.35 per cent.
Mr Pai of Indian Meteorological Department says he is optimistic that monsoon will improve in July and will cover the rainfall deficiency in June. "From first week of July monsoon will pick up. June deficiency may not lead to season deficiency," he added.
Comparing this year's June rainfall with the 2009 situation when El Nino turned India's monsoon rain patchy, Mr Pai said, "By end-June 2009, we had a deficiency of around 47 per cent but by July it became only 3 per cent."
Mr Pai attributed the current monsoon weakness not to El Nino but other factors like delay in the heating of the land due to rains in March-April. "Due to lot of clouding that happened during the winter and pre-monsoon, you might have noticed during the March and April time we had a good rainfall activity in the north. These all have led to the delay in warming of land," Mr Pai said.
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