India-US Deal Fine Print 'Soothes Nerves' — Here's What Brokerages Are Saying On Demand And Risks

A host of brokerages have weighed in on the proposed India–US trade deal, outlining its potential implications for exports, sectoral competitiveness and the broader macro outlook. They broadly see the agreement as constructive for India, with expectations of duty-free or sharply reduced tariffs for a wide range of exports including agriculture and processed foods, auto and aircraft components, pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, chemicals and select industrial goods.

Brokerages highlight that the deal could materially enhance India's competitiveness versus other emerging markets, support both labour-intensive and high-value manufacturing sectors, and mark a meaningful reset in India–US trade relations.

While clarity on fine print and execution timelines remains key—particularly around purchase commitments and sector carve-outs—most expect the agreement to ease market uncertainty, support sentiment, and complement the lagged effects of monetary and fiscal easing, aiding demand recovery into CY26.

Avendus Spark on India–US Trade Deal

• Avendus Spark believes the deal significantly enhances India's competitiveness as an emerging-market exporter to the US.
• The agreement is expected to provide duty-free access for a wide range of Indian agricultural and processed food exports.
• Industrial exports are also set to benefit materially.
• Overall, the deal supports both labour-intensive sectors and high-value industrial segments.
• The agreement, expected to be signed by March 2026, marks a major reset in India–US trade relations.
• It also helps ease pressure on India's capital account.
• Avendus remains constructive on the CY26 outlook.
• The brokerage expects lagged effects of monetary and fiscal easing to drive a meaningful demand recovery.

Nomura on India–US Trade Deal

• Nomura welcomes the clarification on the fine print of the India–US trade deal.
• This should help quell uncertainty that emerged after the initial market optimism faded.
• India's ability to hold firm on key red lines, particularly agriculture, suggests political opposition to the deal will be limited.
• Removal of tariffs on gems and diamonds, aircraft parts, and carve-outs related to Section 232 tariffs are seen as positives.
• The purchase commitment of USD 500 billion over five years is an important metric to track, though execution risks remain.
• Overall, Nomura views the clarification as constructive.

Bernstein on India–US Trade Deal

• Bernstein views the India–US treaty as fairly constructive and a positive setup.
• The agreement reflects a more mature handling of trade relations by both countries.
• Market skepticism had risen as initial euphoria faded, but the announcement helps address key concerns.
• The fine print released so far is broadly positive, particularly for auto components and in shielding pharma from potential negatives.
• Tariff benefits are expected to outweigh higher economic costs from sourcing crude from farther markets.
• Products such as textiles, gems and jewellery, and organic chemicals will now face an 18% duty versus 50% earlier, which is a clear positive.
• However, Bernstein notes limited direct large-cap stock opportunities to play the theme.
• The brokerage remains Neutral on India with a Nifty target of 28,100.
• In the near term, Bernstein sees scope for a relief rally towards 26,500.

ICICI Securities on India–US Trade Deal

• ICICI Securities notes that agriculture and dairy have largely been kept out of the interim agreement.
• Auto components, aircraft components, and generic pharmaceuticals are expected to benefit.
• India is also likely to ramp up purchases of high-end products and energy from the US.
• The agreement is expected to be notified via an executive order in the coming days.
• Nearly 50% of India's exports to the US are expected to face zero tariffs.
• These include electronics, pharmaceuticals, gems and diamonds, aircraft parts, select auto components, chemicals, and a wide range of agricultural and food products.
• ICICI Securities maintains its CY26E Nifty 50 target of 29,000.

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