Goldman Sachs Lowers India's 2026 GDP Forecast To 6.5%; Fitch Sees Growth At 7.5%

Goldman Sachs slashed India's GDP growth forecast for financial year 2026 to 6.5% From 7% on Friday, news agency Bloomberg reported as saying. 

Similarly, while Fitch Ratings saw India's GDP growth steady at 7.5% for FY26, it expects it slowing down to 6.7% in FY27. GS also estimates India's inflation rising to 4.2% from 3.9% and Fitch sees it climbing to 4.5% by December this year on the back of soaring crude oil prices. 

In the remainder of the current fiscal, Fitch expects domestic demand to drive the economy's growth. However, it sees the growth slowing down to 6.7% In FY27 and further to 6.5% in FY28. 

The credit rating agency expect interest rates to remain steady for both FY27 and FY28. 

ALSO READ: India's Q3 GDP Grows At 7.8% Under New Base Year Series, FY26 Estimate Raised To 7.6%

India's Q3FY26 GDP 

India's economy expanded by a robust 7.8% in the October-December quarter of the current financial year, as per the first set of data released by the government under the revamped framework for calculating national output.

The GDP growth exceeded the consensus estimate of 7.6%, projected by economists tracked by Bloomberg. India remained one of the fastest growing major economies of the world despite trade tensions and geopolitical headwinds. 

The government has shifted the GDP base year to 2022-23 from 2011-12, to account for changing production and demand patterns within the economy. Also, it shared revised advanced estimates, which pegged the FY26 GDP growth at 7.6%, as against the previous projection of 7.4%.

Also, the Economic Survey's projection for FY27 has been revised upwards to 7%-7.4% under the new series from 6.8%-7.2% under the old series, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran informed in a press briefing. 

In the second quarter of FY26, the economy had expanded by 8.2% despite the US tariffs that were as high as 50% on Indian imports.

"As per projections, India is on track to cross $4-trillion GDP mark in 2026-27," the CEA added.

Notably, lower inflation kept the gap between nominal and real growth rates narrow. The nominal GDP grew 8.9% during the December quarter.

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