There is a strong probability that the southwest monsoon rainfall will be above normal or higher than 104% of the long-period average, according to the India Meteorological Department. The forecast spells a positive development for the economy amidst slowing growth and headwinds from retaliatory tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.
The southwest monsoon rainfall is likely to be at 105% of the LPA, with a model error of +/-5%, according to the IMD forecast. The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole for the period of 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
Above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except some parts of Northwest India and South Peninsular India, where below-normal rainfall is probable, according to the IMD.
Currently, Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. However the atmospheric circulation features are similar to La Nina conditions, the IMD stated. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the Neutral ENSO condition are likely to continue during the monsoon season.
Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate models forecast indicates that these too are likely to continue during the southwest monsoon season. Both conditions favour the monsoons, as per the weather department.
The IMD also said that the snow cover areas of northern hemisphere and Eurasia during the last three months (January to March, 2025) were below normal. This too, in general, has an inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
The IMD will issue the updated forecasts for the monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2025.
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