(Bloomberg) -- Yemen's Houthi fighters claimed three rare attacks on the United Arab Emirates in two weeks, an escalation in a conflict that's stoking tensions in the oil-exporting Gulf region. The assaults were the UAE's first brush with major blowback from its involvement in the nearly seven-year war in Yemen. The Houthis have vowed more attacks to come, potentially threatening the UAE's commercial center of Dubai.
1. Why did the attacks happen now?
The Houthis appear to be pressuring the UAE to cut back its involvement in the Yemen war. Concerned about spreading Iranian influence, the UAE and Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen in 2015, after the Iran-backed Houthis took the capital and dislodged the internationally recognized government. The UAE withdrew most of its forces from Yemen in 2019, while it has kept some and maintained support and training for Yemeni proxy forces, notably those known as the Giants Brigades. The UAE also has ties to the Southern Transitional Council, a separatist group fighting the Houthis. In the weeks before the attacks on the UAE, the Giants Brigades, along with Saudi-backed forces, scored victories against the Houthis, recapturing parts of the energy-rich Shabwa province and making gains in the city of Marib, which the Houthis aimed to take.
2. Why is this stirring alarm?
While the Houthis regularly fire missiles and drones at neighboring Saudi Arabia, attacks on the UAE, which has no border with Yemen, are very rare. An assault Jan. 17, which employed drones and missiles, ignited a fire at Abu Dhabi's main airport and set fuel trucks ablaze in a nearby industrial area, killing three people. Days later, the Houthis shot two ballistic missiles, which were intercepted by U.S. and UAE forces, at Al Dhafra Air Base, home to the U.S. Air Force's 380th Air Expeditionary Wing. On Jan. 31, another ballistic missile was intercepted. The fact that the missiles traveled more than 700 miles (1126 kilometers) points to the Houthis' increasingly sophisticated capabilities. UAE policymakers also worry that drones have made it possible to conduct small, targeted assaults that slip through defense systems designed to deter more advanced weapons. The physical damage is usually minimal, but the reputational impact could be huge for the UAE, OPEC's third biggest oil producer. The country had reduced its involvement in Yemen partly to avoid drawing attacks.
3. What's at stake?
The UAE has based its reputation on being a safe harbor in a volatile region -- attracting multinational companies and millions of expatriate workers who make up the backbone of the economy. Its biggest city, Dubai, is a key trade and tourism hub that's home to one of the world's busiest international airports. The Houthis have warned international investors to leave the UAE and vowed to expand their range of targets in the country. The UAE's population, which is more than 80% foreign, will likely have less tolerance for persistent military threats than that of Saudi Arabia, where people have grown used to news alerts about intercepted missiles over the past few years. There's also a risk to oil markets, if attacks were to damage the UAE's oil facilities. In 2019, a sophisticated assault on Saudi oil infrastructure briefly knocked out half the country's production.
4. What's been the response to the attacks?
The Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis intensified its airstrikes against rebel targets after the first assault on the UAE. On Jan. 21, 82 people were killed and 266 wounded when the coalition bombed a Houthi-operated prison in the group's northern stronghold of Saada, according to Medecins Sans Frontieres. Internet service was also blacked out across the country for days following airstrikes on a building hosting an internet provider in the port city of Hodeidah. The UAE has urged U.S. President Joe Biden's administration to designate the Houthis a terrorist organization, as the U.S. did under Biden's predecessor Donald Trump. Aid agencies oppose that step, saying it would only make distributing assistance more challenging in a country that's experiencing one of the world's worst humanitarian disasters. The war has contributed to widespread displacement and near-famine in what was already the poorest country on the Arabian peninsula.
The Reference Shelf
- Related QuickTakes on the background to the war and the humanitarian situation in Yemen.
- A report by the International Crisis Group examines the impact of the war on Yemen's economy.
- A report on the Giants Brigade by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.
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