(Bloomberg) -- Holiday retail sales will increase by 4.5% to 5% to more than $1.1 trillion this year as a strong U.S. job market offsets concerns about an economic slowdown and the trade war with China, according to Deloitte.
“Near record-low unemployment rates, coupled with continued monthly job creation, may encourage people to spend more during the holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster, in the company's annual report on the U.S. holiday outlook.
Deloitte's forecast comes after U.S. consumer confidence beat expectations in August, allaying fears that continuing tariffs would result in disappointing holiday sales. The report also predicts e-commerce sales will grow by 14% to 18% to as much as $149 billion.
Still, there are potential risks that could derail the expected growth in holiday spending. Natural disasters or conflicts abroad, such as the recent attack on Saudi oil production, could hit buyer sentiment, according to Rod Sides, U.S. retail leader for Deloitte.
“Consumer confidence could be affected by a spike in energy prices, hurricanes, anything that impacts what consumers are seeing in their checkbook at the end of the week,” he said in a phone interview.
The forecast tracks consumer spending between the November to January timeframe, excluding purchases of gasoline and cars.
--With assistance from Jordyn Holman.
To contact the reporter on this story: Donald Moore in New York at dmoore71@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Anne Riley Moffat at ariley17@bloomberg.net, Jonathan Roeder
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