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Welcome to Tuesday, Americas. Here's the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:
- Markets are no longer pricing in any chance of the Federal Reserve raising its policy benchmark by more than a quarter percentage point in March. They're also betting betting the European Central Bank will put off raising interest rates until next year following Russia's invasion of Ukraine
- The war comes at an important inflection point for the Fed. It'll probably see the added uncertainty as modestly damping economic activity while providing yet another unwelcome inflationary impulse
- The U.S. and its allies are discussing a coordinated release of about 60 million barrels of oil from their emergency stockpiles
- One of President Joe Biden's top economic advisers also highlighted the extra uncertainty over the outlook for the U.S. economy, though sanctions appear to be working
- Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina acknowledged for the first time that sanctions imposed on the central bank meant she couldn't intervene to keep the ruble from collapsing on Monday
- Biden is set to confront economic doubts and the war in Ukraine in his State of Union address today
- The U.S. president will call on Congress to revive stalled climate legislation in the address, pitching a package of tax credits and climate spending as a way to battle inflation and save the average American family $500 per year
- U.S. birth rates are still declining, but not nearly as severely as in the depths of the pandemic
- Brazil's inflation rate is slowing and may end up the year below that of the U.S. after the Latin American nation pulled monetary and fiscal incentives last year, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said
- China's economy gained momentum in February, suggesting the government's pro-growth policies have started to kick in, although small firms are still struggling
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