The week ahead on D-Street is expected to remain volatile as investors closely track developments in the Middle East conflict, movements in crude oil prices and the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
Indian equities ended last week with one of their sharpest weekly declines in nearly four years, as geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices triggered a broad-based sell-off. The rupee also weakened to a record low against the dollar, reflecting concerns around capital outflows and rising import costs.
Investors will now keep a close watch on global macro developments, foreign institutional investor activity and key domestic inflation data for cues on the near-term market direction.
Markets Recap
Benchmark indices witnessed heavy selling pressure through the week. The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 both declined over 5% on a weekly basis amid escalating geopolitical risks and sustained foreign investor selling.
Broader markets also came under pressure, with the Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 indices falling between 3% and 4%.
Sectorally, most indices ended the week in the red. Automobiles fell about 10%, while PSU Banks and Defence stocks declined roughly 7% each. However, relatively defensive segments such as Pharma and Energy showed resilience, limiting losses compared with the broader market.
Key Domestic Triggers
India's wholesale price inflation data will be closely watched on Monday. WPI had risen 1.81% year-on-year in January 2026, accelerating from 0.83% in December and coming in above expectations.
Foreign institutional investors have intensified selling in March so far, offloading shares worth Rs 56,883 crore — the highest monthly selling in the past year.
In the derivatives segment, FIIs continue to maintain a bearish stance in index futures. Their long-to-short ratio stands at 9:91, compared with 21:79 at the start of the March series, while net open interest has widened significantly.
Global Cues
Global markets will focus on the US Federal Reserve's policy decision scheduled for Wednesday. Policymakers are expected to keep interest rates unchanged as they balance inflation risks and the recent spike in crude oil prices.
Investors will also monitor crude oil movements and geopolitical developments in the Middle East, which remain key drivers of global market sentiment.
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