(Bloomberg Opinion) -- At the height of his power in early 2020, Boris Johnson was asked to compile a list of the five women who had most influenced his life. One he noted was Munira Mirza, director of his No. 10 policy unit, who had served as deputy mayor for culture during his time as mayor of London. For anyone who knew “Planet Boris” from its origins, Mirza was the guiding intellect of the Johnson project: a savvy, quiet figure using the role of London figurehead to launch his bid for leadership of the Conservative party — and ultimately, his power grab as prime minister.
After a brief stint in the arts sector, Mirza returned to the political front lines at Number 10, delivering the government's agenda, but also shaping it as a northern meritocrat distanced from Johnson's coterie of elite friends. She was, the prime minister said, the “most powerful nonsense detector” he knew. Now she has resigned after objecting to her boss's claim this week that Keir Starmer, the Labour opposition leader, was responsible in his former role as director of public prosecutions for allowing serial sex abuser and pedophile Jimmy Savile to go free of criminal charges. Johnson has “clarified” his words but offered no formal apology.
Out went communications chief Jack Doyle on Thursday, too, although he claimed that the pressures of the job on his family were the cause. (Doyle was also in the spotlight for attending illicit Downing Street parties during lockdown.) Dan Rosenfield, head of the PM's staff operation, and Martin Reynolds, his principal private secretary who presided over this mess, are also departing.
The court is collapsing, leaving a leader friendless and at bay.
A few hours after the resignations, Johnson's chancellor, most popular minister and hotly tipped successor, Rishi Sunak, publicly rebuked his boss in a press conference when asked about the accusation against Starmer: “I wouldn't have said that.” Sunak has already been lukewarm in defending the prime minister. The two most important members of the government are now circling each other in a dance of death.
When in a hole, Boris Johnson can't stop digging. The prime minister made his spurious charge against Labour's leader while defending himself in the House of Commons from responsibility for parties held at No. 10 during lockdown. True, Starmer had been in charge of Crown prosecutions, but in fact he had no sight of Savile's case, a disc jockey and sexual predator who once beguiled the political establishment.
Mirza was not alone in her dismay — the prime minister's slur prompted more Conservative MPs to call for a vote of confidence in their leader — but the departure of one of his closest aides will be much more painful. A quiet loyalist who had worked with Johnson for more than a decade, Mirza guided his successful “war on woke” strategy in wooing Labour voters alienated by its metropolitan social agenda. It is telling that her resignation was laced with regret, noting about Johnson, “You are a better man than many of your detractors will ever understand.”
The blows to the prime minister's authority keep coming. As I'd predicted, the publication of senior civil servant Sue Gray's redacted inquiry into wrongdoing at No. 10 delivered no knock-out punch, but a challenge to his leadership is becoming more likely. If photographs of party revelry at No. 10, gathered by the ethics investigation and passed on to the police, find their way into the public domain, more MPs will be tempted to sign letters of no confidence. Snaps of the prime minister caught holding a champagne flute would be incendiary.
The problem for Johnson now is that there is more challenge than loyalty, though the latter still exists. The chancellor's arms-length approach to No. 10 has not been matched by the rest of Johnson's top team. Other putative rivals for the top job — among them Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who was recently filmed on a tank turret in a pose reminiscent of Margaret Thatcher and talking tough on the Russia-Ukraine crisis — have been studiously loyal in public while burnishing their credentials to succeed him.
Yet Sunak's popularity and Johnson's weakness have given the chancellor the upper hand in what used to be a master-servant relationship. Faced by an irresistible crisis, the prime minister's first instinct is to buy his way out of trouble. But this week, Sunak insisted that there should be no change to planned National Insurance (a byword for tax) rises. Confronted by the chancellor's immovable fiscal rectitude, Johnson found himself trapped.
The U.K.'s cost-of-living crisis, compounded by a huge hike in energy bills and the announcement of an interest-rate rise, threaten to further damage a floundering PM's popularity. But the head of the Confederation of British Industry pointed out in a speech Thursday that it is hard to sustain higher public spending when growth is sluggish. Economics and raw politics are pulling Johnson in different directions.
But that is grand strategy, and the story is rapidly shifting to the hard-edged reality of how long the Tory leader can hang on when his court is in disarray and when those who believed most in his personal charm and connection to voters are exiting the No. 10 door.
At yesterday's press conference, the chancellor denied prime ministerial ambitions. But we are entitled to ask, who is the master now? Even if Johnson survives the current round of resignations and scandals, he faces a perilous, friendless few months lie ahead. Inflation and tax rises will hit the pockets of U.K. voters hardest in April, within weeks of local elections held nationwide on May 5 that are widely regarded as a test of the prime minister's personal popularity.
Johnson has always been a figure who reveled in chaos. Now he has got it. No. 10 is living one day at a time. But this is a battle for survival, not for victory.
More From Bloomberg Opinion:
- What If Ukraine Is Better Off Outside NATO and the EU?: Clive Crook
- China and Russia Are Frenemies With Benefits: Clara Ferreira Marques
- “Leveling Up” Is Not Just Another Boris Johnson Buzzword: Adrian Wooldridge
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Martin Ivens was editor of the Sunday Times from 2013 to 2020 and was formerly its chief political commentator. He is a director of the Times Newspapers board.
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
