(Bloomberg) -- U.S. airlines probably will avoid applying for some $25 billion in loans under a federal aid package designed to help them survive the collapse in travel from the new coronavirus, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
But the carriers will tap a similar amount in cash assistance for payrolls that should eliminate the risk of near-term bankruptcies, JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker said in a report Wednesday.
A stipulation in the draft proposal that requires loan applicants to show that they have no other sources of capital “will preclude any airline in our coverage universe from applying, at least for the time being,” Baker said.
While other funds are expected to grow more costly and harder to find, the four largest U.S. carriers secured billions of dollars in loans over the past few weeks. American Airlines Group Inc. borrowed $1 billion in term loans Wednesday under an existing credit facility.
The inclusion of cash aid to support payroll spending in draft versions of the bill reviewed by Bloomberg News was a major victory for the airline industry, which has been battered by a rapid and widespread collapse in demand. Airlines for America, a lobby group for the largest U.S. carriers, had said that lack of such aid would prompt worker furloughs.
The funds will be linked to airlines' recent spending for labor and could range from $6.3 billion for American, to $440 million for Spirit Airlines Inc., Baker said. Short-term headcount stipulations and “regrettably vague” language on possible equity stakes for the government aren't troublesome, he said.
“When it comes to grants, we remain concerned that in the absence of second-half demand recovery, airlines could still come to find that court-supervised restructurings are necessary,” Baker said. “Again, while today's legislation removes that risk for now, equity upside potential is logically believed to be capped as investors await evidence of demand recovery.”
Baker cautioned that final language in the legislation could alter his conclusions.
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