US President Donald Trump's assertion that Iran could “soon” develop a missile capable of striking the United States is not supported by current US intelligence assessments, news agency Reuters reported, citing sources.
The discrepancy raises fresh questions about part of the administration's argument for potential military action against Tehran.
Earlier in his State of the Union address, Trump told Congress that Iran was working on missiles that would “soon reach” the United States.
He added that Tehran already possesses missiles capable of threatening Europe and American military bases overseas.
Reuters reported that intelligence officials however say there has been no revision to a 2025 unclassified Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment, which concluded that Iran could take until 2035 to develop a “militarily viable” intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), potentially using its existing satellite launch vehicle (SLV) technology.
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A US official told NBC News that while Iran has steadily advanced its missile and space-launch capabilities over the years, there is no evidence of a sudden breakthrough that would significantly accelerate the timeline.
Until now, US intelligence agencies and European governments have maintained that Iran could eventually pursue an ICBM under the cover of its civilian space programme but have not warned of an imminent threat.
It remains unclear whether Trump's remarks reflect new intelligence indicating that Iran has decided to actively pursue ICBM capability or whether the administration believes Tehran could achieve such capability sooner than previously assessed.
Responding to questions about Iran's progress, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he would not speculate on timelines but reiterated that Tehran has long sought to enhance its missile range.
“You've seen them attempt satellite launches. You've seen them increasing the range of existing missiles,” Rubio said during a visit to the Caribbean.
“Clearly, they are moving along a path that could one day allow them to develop weapons capable of reaching the continental United States.”
The White House declined to comment on the intelligence assessments.
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