(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market assets are in a “sweet spot” in the months ahead thanks to low global rates, a weaker dollar and a potentially less confrontational U.S. president, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Diana Amoa, a money manager at the firm's investment arm, said developing-nation debt will benefit should Joe Biden win the presidency and Republicans control the Senate. The prospect of less fiscal stimulus suggests lower rates for longer and an extended period of dollar weakness, luring more investors into the asset class, she said.
Securities from Mexico and China, which got whipsawed by the Trump administration's trade wars, have rallied in anticipation of a more conventional approach under Biden. Amoa said that trend could last.
“Those two are most likely the key beneficiaries,” she said by phone from Greenwich, Connecticut. Meantime, “Russia and Turkey could be most susceptible if you get sanctions coming through.”
Once the U.S. election is resolved, Amoa said emerging-market investors will be focused on two things: The virus and the vaccine. Any positive developments there would bolster risk sentiment further. For now, she finds the rebound in purchasing manager indexes across the developing world encouraging.
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In hard-currency debt, Amoa said she favors notes rated BB, which still look very cheap. Her highest conviction trades include local bonds from Mexico, Indonesia and South Africa.
“With the dollar depreciating in the coming quarters, EM local is one of our top trades,” Amoa said.
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