Swiggy's quick commerce gross order value and monthly transacting user grew 15.5/13.4% QoQ to Rs 39 billion/7 million respectively (versus Blinkit's 27/19% QoQ) as rising competition kept customer incentives, acquisition costs and dark store network investments elevated.
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HDFC Securities Institutional Equities
Swiggy Ltd.'s food delivery trumped our margin expectations; alas widening Instamart losses pulled it back. Overall, B2C gross order value grew ~38/7.6% YoY/QoQ respectively. In food delivery, monthly transacting users addition/GOV growth was largely in line with expectations (up 19% YoY), with stable take rates.
Quick commerce execution fell short of expectations (lagged Blinkit too) in Q3. QC GOV and MTU grew 15.5/13.4% QoQ to Rs 39 billion/7 million respectively (versus Blinkit's 27/19% QoQ) as rising competition kept customer incentives, acquisition costs and dark store network investments elevated.
Still early days, but execution variance is widening between the two platforms in QC.
Note: For both platforms despite stable GOV density QoQ, Instamart's incremental QC burn was higher than that of Blinkit's. We've increased our estimates of QC losses for Swiggy.
Overall adjusted Ebitda losses stand revised at -Rs 15.8/-Rs 12.3bn (earlier: -Rs 14.4/-Rs 10.3 billion) for FY26/27 respectively. We maintain our Reduce rating on the stock with an SOTP-based target price of Rs 455/share (implying ~4x FY27 enterprise value/sales).
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