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ICICI Securities Report
Natco Pharma Ltd. would be the first company to launch Revlimid (lenalidomide) in March 2022 as Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd.'s settlement with Celgene over its patent clears the path for Natco Pharma.
Dr. Reddy's would launch sometime after Natco Pharma (we assume six months) and would have market share restrictions lower than Natco Pharma in our view.
Till date, three companies (Natco Pharma, Dr. Reddy's and Alvogen) have settled the litigation with innovator and would launch during this exclusivity period (FY23-FY26).
We expect the company to generate total revenue and profit after tax of 1.3 billion U.S. dollar and 900 million U.S dollar during the shared exclusivity period over FY23-FY26.
This would imply a net present value of Rs 302 per share for Revlimid for Natco Pharma.
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