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Motilal Oswal Report
Consumer price index-based retail inflation came in at a five-month high of 7.4% YoY in September 2022 as against 7% YoY in August 2022. This number is slightly higher than a Bloomberg survey of 7.3% YoY, but is marginally lower than our forecast of 7.5% YoY. This marks the eighth consecutive month of above 6% CPI inflation.
Food inflation came in at 8.6% YoY in Sep-22 – the highest in 22 months. This was led by a 108-month high in ‘cereals and products' (weightage: 9.7%) inflation, at 11.5% YoY, in Sep-22.
Surprisingly, index of industrial production contracted by 0.8% YoY in Aug-22 as against a growth of 2.2% YoY in July-22. This number is contrary to Bloomberg expectations and our forecast of a 1.7% YoY growth in Aug-22. Consumer goods production declined by 6.9% YoY in Aug-22 after a minor fall of 0.7% YoY in July-22.
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