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Dolat Capital Report
Ambuja Cements Ltd. reported results broadly in line, however Ebitda below estimates, whereas adjusted profit after tax above estimates.
Ambuja Cements posted +8.0% YoY revenue to Rs 39.7 billion (-16.1% QoQ) led by +7.0% YoY in volume to 7.6 million tonne (-16.5% QoQ) coupled with +0.9% YoY in realisation/tonne to Rs 5,223 (+0.5% QoQ).
Ebitda/adjusted profit after tax +147.0%/ +317.8% YoY to Rs 7.7 billion/ Rs 6.4 billion in Q2 FY24.
We expect +3.7%/ +17.1%/ +5.3% revenue/ Ebitda/adjusted profit after tax compound annual growth rate over FY23- FY26E led by -8.4% (+14.2% like to like)/ +5.7%/ +15.6% volume growth and -0.3%/ 0.0%/ 0.0% cement realisation growth in FY24E/ FY25E/ FY26E.
We maintain our Ebitda estimates for FY24E, however marginally increase by 1.8% for FY25E factoring higher volume and realisation.
We introduce FY26E. Stock has corrected by 12% since our last result update on August 02, 2023. As we roll over to FY26E, we upgrade from 'Sell' to 'Accumulate' with a revised target price of Rs 472.
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