The Nifty 50 ended Friday's session largely flat, remaining subdued through the day and consolidating in a narrow 24,200-24,300 range. The index struggled to sustain gains at higher levels, with the absence of strong follow-through buying keeping the upside capped.
Amol Athawale, Vice President, Technical Research at Kotak Securities, said the short-term market outlook remains weak, but the 50-day SMA around 24,150 is expected to act as a crucial support zone for traders. "As long as the market trades above this level, a pullback formation is likely to continue," Athawale said.
On the upside, he expects the Nifty to potentially move towards its 20-day SMA near 24,400. A successful breakout above 24,400 could strengthen the recovery and push the index towards the 24,500-24,700 zone. However, a break below 24,150 could alter the near-term setup. Athawale said sentiment could turn negative below this level, with selling pressure likely to accelerate and drag the index towards 24,000. Further weakness could push the index towards the 23,850-23,800 range.
The technical structure remains cautious despite the index holding above immediate support. Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said the Nifty continues to display a "choppy, momentum-less structure", indicating a lack of clear directional momentum.
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Momentum indicators also remain subdued. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the MACD remains weak, with the indicator's negative histogram suggesting that downside momentum is still present. However, the price action indicates consolidation rather than an immediate breakdown, keeping the possibility of a short-term pullback alive as long as key support levels hold.
Bank Nifty Outlook
Bank Nifty ended higher, opening with a gap-up near 57,613 and extending gains through the session to touch an intraday high of 57,772, where it tested the key 57,700-57,800 resistance zone. The index eased slightly from its day's high in the second half but managed to retain most of its gains.
According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a sustained breakout above the 57,700-57,800 zone could strengthen buying momentum and pave the way for an advance towards the 58,000 mark, which remains the next major resistance level.
On the downside, 57,400-57,300 is likely to act as the immediate support zone, followed by the stronger 57,100-57,000 region. Holding these levels would keep the near-term structure supportive.
Momentum indicators also remain mildly positive. The daily RSI stood at 52.30, marginally above its signal line, indicating a constructive bias, although the absence of a stronger RSI reading suggests that conviction among buyers remains limited.
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